Moore Julia L, Remais Justin V
Program in Population Biology, Ecology and Evolution, Graduate Division of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Emory University, 1510 Clifton Rd, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA,
Acta Biotheor. 2014 Mar;62(1):69-90. doi: 10.1007/s10441-014-9209-9. Epub 2014 Jan 20.
Developmental models that account for the metabolic effect of temperature variability on poikilotherms, such as degree-day models, have been widely used to study organism emergence, range and development, particularly in agricultural and vector-borne disease contexts. Though simple and easy to use, structural and parametric issues can influence the outputs of such models, often substantially. Because the underlying assumptions and limitations of these models have rarely been considered, this paper reviews the structural, parametric, and experimental issues that arise when using degree-day models, including the implications of particular structural or parametric choices, as well as assumptions that underlie commonly used models. Linear and non-linear developmental functions are compared, as are common methods used to incorporate temperature thresholds and calculate daily degree-days. Substantial differences in predicted emergence time arose when using linear versus non-linear developmental functions to model the emergence time in a model organism. The optimal method for calculating degree-days depends upon where key temperature threshold parameters fall relative to the daily minimum and maximum temperatures, as well as the shape of the daily temperature curve. No method is shown to be universally superior, though one commonly used method, the daily average method, consistently provides accurate results. The sensitivity of model projections to these methodological issues highlights the need to make structural and parametric selections based on a careful consideration of the specific biological response of the organism under study, and the specific temperature conditions of the geographic regions of interest. When degree-day model limitations are considered and model assumptions met, the models can be a powerful tool for studying temperature-dependent development.
诸如度日模型等考虑了温度变异性对变温动物代谢影响的发育模型，已被广泛用于研究生物的出现、分布范围和发育情况，尤其是在农业和病媒传播疾病的背景下。尽管这些模型简单易用，但结构和参数问题可能会对其输出结果产生影响，而且这种影响往往很大。由于这些模型的潜在假设和局限性很少被考虑，本文回顾了使用度日模型时出现的结构、参数和实验问题，包括特定结构或参数选择的影响，以及常用模型所依据的假设。文中比较了线性和非线性发育函数，以及用于纳入温度阈值和计算每日度日数的常用方法。在使用线性和非线性发育函数对一种模式生物的出现时间进行建模时，预测的出现时间存在显著差异。计算度日数的最佳方法取决于关键温度阈值参数相对于每日最低和最高温度的位置，以及每日温度曲线的形状。虽然没有一种方法被证明在所有情况下都更优越，但一种常用的方法，即每日平均法，始终能提供准确的结果。模型预测对这些方法问题的敏感性凸显了需要根据对所研究生物的特定生物学反应以及感兴趣地理区域的特定温度条件的仔细考虑来进行结构和参数选择。当考虑到度日模型的局限性并满足模型假设时，这些模型可以成为研究温度依赖性发育的有力工具。
