Digestive Oncology Research Center, Digestive Disease Research Institute, Shariati Hospital, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Non-communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrinology and Metabolism Population Sciences Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Arch Iran Med. 2014 Jan;17(1):33-53.
It is expected that gastrointestinal (GI) and liver diseases inflict considerable burden on health systems in Iran; therefore, highlighting the significance of GI disorders across the other most burdensome diseases requires comprehensive assessment and regular updates of the statistics of such diseases in Iran.
To assess in-depth sub-national estimates and trends for the incidence and prevalence of selected GI and liver diseases by age, gender and province over the period 1990 - 2013 in Iran.
This is a national and sub-national burden of disease study on 21 GI diseases using all available data sources, including cancer registry, death registration system data, hospital data, and all available published data. Analyses will be performed separately by gender, age groups, year, and province. We will conduct 21 separated systematic reviews of the literature for 21 diseases categories through searching online international electronic databases (i.e. the Medline database of the National Library of Medicine, Web of Science, and Scopus), Iranian search engines (i.e., IranMedex, Scientific Information Database (SID), and IRANDOC), and gray literature. We will search the medical literature published between January 1985 and December 2013. We generated two models, Spatio-temporal and Multilevel Autoregressive models, to estimate mean and uncertainty interval for the parameters of interest by gender, age, year, and province. The models will be informed by data of gender, age, year, and province. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods will be used to perform Bayesian inference in both modeling framework. All programs will be written in R statistical packages (version 3.0.1).
We will calculate and present 1990 to 2013 trends in terms of prevalence, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years DALYs for the 21 selected GI diseases by gender, and province. We will also quantify the uncertainty interval for the estimates of interest.
Results of the present study will have implications for policy making; as they allow for understanding geographic distributions of the selected GI diseases, and identifying health disparities across provinces.
预计胃肠道（GI）和肝脏疾病将给伊朗的卫生系统带来相当大的负担；因此，强调 GI 疾病在其他负担最重的疾病中的重要性需要对伊朗此类疾病的统计数据进行全面评估和定期更新。
评估 1990 年至 2013 年期间按年龄、性别和省份划分的选定胃肠道和肝脏疾病的发病率和患病率的深入的国家和次国家估计值和趋势。
这是一项针对 21 种胃肠道疾病的国家和次国家疾病负担研究，使用了包括癌症登记处、死亡登记系统数据、医院数据和所有可用的已发表数据在内的所有现有数据源。分析将按性别、年龄组、年份和省份分别进行。我们将针对 21 种疾病类别，通过在线国际电子数据库（即美国国立卫生研究院的 Medline 数据库、Web of Science 和 Scopus）、伊朗搜索引擎（即 IranMedex、Scientific Information Database（SID）和 IRANDOC）以及灰色文献进行 21 次系统的文献综述。我们将检索 1985 年 1 月至 2013 年 12 月期间发表的医学文献。我们生成了两个模型，时空和多层次自回归模型，以按性别、年龄、年份和省份估计感兴趣参数的平均值和不确定性区间。模型将由性别、年龄、年份和省份的数据提供信息。马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）方法将用于在两种建模框架中执行贝叶斯推断。所有程序都将使用 R 统计软件包（版本 3.0.1）编写。
我们将按性别和省份计算并呈现 1990 年至 2013 年期间选定的 21 种胃肠道疾病的患病率、因过早死亡导致的生命损失年数（YLLs）、残疾生活年数（YLDs）和残疾调整生命年数（DALYs）的趋势。我们还将量化感兴趣估计值的不确定性区间。
本研究的结果将对政策制定产生影响；因为它们可以了解选定的胃肠道疾病的地理分布，并确定各省之间的健康差异。
