University of California, Merced, United States.
University of Massachusetts Amherst, United States.
Cognition. 2014 Apr;131(1):75-91. doi: 10.1016/j.cognition.2013.12.003. Epub 2014 Jan 22.
Studies of the belief bias effect in syllogistic reasoning have relied on three traditional difference score measures: the logic index, belief index, and interaction index. Dube, Rotello, and Heit (2010, 2011) argued that the interaction index incorrectly assumes a linear receiver operating characteristic (ROC). Here, all three measures are addressed. Simulations indicated that traditional analyses of reasoning experiments are likely to lead to incorrect conclusions. Two new experiments examined the role of instructional manipulations on the belief bias effect. The form of the ROCs violated assumptions of traditional measures. In comparison, signal detection theory (SDT) model-based analyses were a better match for the form of the ROCs, and implied that belief bias and instructional manipulations are predominantly response bias effects. Finally, reanalyses of previous studies of conditional reasoning also showed non-linear ROCs, violating assumptions of traditional analyses. Overall, reasoning research using traditional measures is at risk of drawing incorrect conclusions.
在三段论推理的信念偏差效应研究中,主要依赖三种传统的差分分数测量指标:逻辑指数、信念指数和交互指数。Dube、Rotello 和 Heit(2010、2011)认为交互指数错误地假设了线性接收机操作特性(ROC)。在这里,三种测量指标都将被讨论。模拟结果表明,推理实验的传统分析很可能导致错误的结论。两项新实验检验了教学操作对信念偏差效应的作用。ROC 的形式违反了传统测量指标的假设。相比之下,信号检测理论(SDT)基于模型的分析更符合 ROC 的形式,并暗示信念偏差和教学操作主要是响应偏差效应。最后,对先前条件推理研究的重新分析也表明,ROC 是非线性的,违反了传统分析的假设。总体而言,使用传统测量指标的推理研究有得出错误结论的风险。