HIV Department, World Health Organization, Avenue Appia 20, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland Geneva, Switzerland.
AIDS. 2014 Jan;28 Suppl 1:S85-92. doi: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000000111.
Despite the exponential growth in the literature on modelling and simulation studies of impact and cost-effectiveness in different aspects of healthcare, there is no clear consensus on the appropriate role of modelling in the development of recommendations in clinical guidelines. This is compounded both by the lack of a standardised approach to assess the quality of modelling, and lack of clarity on its positioning within the GRADE (Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) method for decision-making in the development of WHO guidelines, that considers both evidence from systematic reviews of randomized clinical trials (RTCs) or observational studies, together with stakeholder values and preferences, resource use, and feasibility issues. In the development of the 2013 WHO Consolidated Guidelines on the use of Antiretroviral drugs for treating and preventing HIV infection, a series of modelling projects were undertaken to inform the recommendations on eligibility criteria for ART initiation, and approaches to monitoring for treatment response. We report our experiences, challenges encountered, and several key considerations to guide the future use of modelling in the development of WHO guidelines. These are: (1) Transparency in the conduct and reporting of model inputs and results; (2) The need for agreed standards for critical appraisal and use of modelling data in healthcare policy making; (3) recognition that modelling of cost-effectiveness is only one component of decision-making in development of WHO recommendations and in priority-setting; (4) The need for closer interaction and an ongoing dialogue between modellers and model end-users or decision-makers; (5) the important role of WHO in convening and facilitating comparative assessment of multiple models; and (6) The need to optimize research and data collection to inform modelling studies.
尽管在医学领域的建模和模拟研究方面的文献呈指数级增长,涉及到影响和成本效益的各个方面,但在建模在临床指南制定中的适当作用方面,尚未达成明确共识。这不仅是因为缺乏评估建模质量的标准化方法,也因为在 WHO 指南制定的 GRADE(推荐分级、评估、制定与评价)方法中,对于建模的定位不够明确,该方法考虑了来自随机对照试验(RCT)或观察性研究的证据,以及利益相关者的价值观和偏好、资源利用和可行性问题。在制定 2013 年 WHO 抗逆转录病毒药物治疗和预防 HIV 感染综合使用指南时,开展了一系列建模项目,为 ART 启动的资格标准和治疗反应监测方法提供建议。我们报告了我们的经验、遇到的挑战,以及一些关键的考虑因素,以指导未来在 WHO 指南制定中使用建模。这些因素是:(1)模型输入和结果的开展和报告的透明度;(2)在医疗保健政策制定中,对建模数据进行批判性评估和使用的标准达成一致的必要性;(3)认识到成本效益建模只是 WHO 建议制定和优先排序决策的一个组成部分;(4)建模者和模型最终用户或决策者之间需要更紧密的互动和持续对话;(5)WHO 在召集和促进对多个模型进行比较评估方面的重要作用;(6)需要优化研究和数据收集,为建模研究提供信息。