Departamento de Zoología y Antropología Física, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, E-28040, Spain.
Glob Chang Biol. 2014 Aug;20(8):2406-16. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12542. Epub 2014 Apr 12.
The importance of parasitism for host populations depends on local parasite richness and prevalence: usually host individuals face higher infection risk in areas where parasites are most diverse, and host dispersal to or from these areas may have fitness consequences. Knowing how parasites are and will be distributed in space and time (in a context of global change) is thus crucial from both an ecological and a biological conservation perspective. Nevertheless, most research articles focus just on elaborating models of parasite distribution instead of parasite diversity. We produced distribution models of the areas where haemosporidian parasites are currently highly diverse (both at community and at within-host levels) and prevalent among Iberian populations of a model passerine host: the blackcap Sylvia atricapilla; and how these areas are expected to vary according to three scenarios of climate change. On the basis of these models, we analysed whether variation among populations in parasite richness or prevalence are expected to remain the same or change in the future, thereby reshuffling the geographic mosaic of host-parasite interactions as we observe it today. Our models predict a rearrangement of areas of high prevalence and richness of parasites in the future, with Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon parasites (today the most diverse genera in blackcaps) losing areas of high diversity and Plasmodium parasites (the most virulent ones) gaining them. Likewise, the prevalence of multiple infections and parasite infracommunity richness would be reduced. Importantly, differences among populations in the prevalence and richness of parasites are expected to decrease in the future, creating a more homogeneous parasitic landscape. This predicts an altered geographic mosaic of host-parasite relationships, which will modify the interaction arena in which parasite virulence evolves.
寄生虫对宿主种群的重要性取决于当地寄生虫的丰富度和流行率:通常情况下,寄生虫种类最多的地区,宿主个体面临更高的感染风险,而宿主在这些地区之间的扩散可能会对其适应度产生影响。因此,了解寄生虫在空间和时间上的分布情况(在全球变化的背景下),无论是从生态学还是生物保护的角度来看,都是至关重要的。然而,大多数研究文章只是专注于阐述寄生虫分布的模型,而不是寄生虫多样性。我们制作了目前在伊比利亚黑帽莺种群中高度多样化(在群落和宿主内水平上)和流行的血孢子虫寄生虫的分布模型;以及根据三种气候变化情景,这些地区预计会如何变化。基于这些模型,我们分析了寄生虫丰富度或流行率在未来是否会发生变化,从而改变我们今天观察到的宿主-寄生虫相互作用的地理镶嵌模式。我们的模型预测,未来寄生虫高流行率和丰富度的地区将重新排列,疟原虫寄生虫(最具毒性的寄生虫)将获得 Haemoproteus 和 Leucocytozoon 寄生虫(今天黑帽莺中最多样化的属)失去的高多样性地区。同样,多种寄生虫感染的流行率和寄生虫亚群落丰富度也会降低。重要的是,未来寄生虫流行率和丰富度的种群间差异预计会减少,形成一个更加均匀的寄生虫景观。这预示着宿主-寄生虫关系的地理镶嵌模式将发生改变,从而改变寄生虫毒力进化的相互作用范围。
Int J Parasitol Parasites Wildl. 2015-9-11