Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Feb 11;111(6):2100-3. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1316006111. Epub 2014 Jan 13.
A recent study by Burke et al. [Burke M, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema J, Lobell D (2009) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(49):20670-20674] reports statistical evidence that the likelihood of civil wars in African countries was elevated in hotter years. A following study by Buhaug [Buhaug H (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(38):16477-16482] reports that a reexamination of the evidence overturns Burke et al.'s findings when alternative statistical models and alternative measures of conflict are used. We show that the conclusion by Buhaug is based on absent or incorrect statistical tests, both in model selection and in the comparison of results with Burke et al. When we implement the correct tests, we find there is no evidence presented in Buhaug that rejects the original results of Burke et al.
最近 Burke 等人的一项研究 [Burke M、Miguel E、Satyanath S、Dykema J、Lobell D（2009）Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106（49）：20670-20674] 报告了统计证据，表明非洲国家发生内战的可能性在较热的年份会升高。随后 Buhaug 的一项研究 [Buhaug H（2010）Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107（38）：16477-16482] 报告说，当使用替代的统计模型和冲突的替代衡量标准时，对证据的重新检验推翻了 Burke 等人的发现。我们表明，Buhaug 的结论基于模型选择和与 Burke 等人的结果进行比较时缺少或不正确的统计检验。当我们实施正确的检验时，我们发现 Buhaug 没有提出任何证据来否定 Burke 等人的原始结果。
