Luo Jing-guang, Yang Ming, Han Ling, Chen Li-Wei, Chen Xin, Gao Kang, Li Xiao-Hong, Chen Ping
Department of Cardiology, Fu Xing Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Australas J Ageing. 2014 Dec;33(4):E1-5. doi: 10.1111/ajag.12044. Epub 2013 Sep 3.
To detect the validity of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score in predicting acute myocardial infarction (AMI) mortality of Chinese inpatients aged 80 and over.
Hospital mortality was defined as all-cause death rate of patients during hospitalisation. Using GRACE risk score to predict death risk, both discrimination (C statistic) and calibration (the predicted vs observed mortality based on the population with predicted risks) were evaluated.
Three hundred eighty-six patients presenting with ST segment elevation AMI (STEMI) and non-STEMI were enrolled. The GRACE risk score ranged between 151 and 297, and the mortality was 23.3%. The overall discriminatory capacity of the GRACE model was high (C statistic 0.767, CI: 0.712-0.822). There was a high correlation (R(2) = 0.833) between the predicted and observed hospitalised AMI mortality.
The GRACE score is a useful risk prediction model for hospital mortality of Chinese AMI patients aged 80 and over.
检测全球急性冠状动脉事件注册研究（GRACE）风险评分对预测80岁及以上中国住院患者急性心肌梗死（AMI）死亡率的有效性。
医院死亡率定义为患者住院期间的全因死亡率。使用GRACE风险评分预测死亡风险，评估区分度（C统计量）和校准度（基于预测风险人群的预测死亡率与观察到的死亡率）。
纳入386例ST段抬高型心肌梗死（STEMI）和非STEMI患者。GRACE风险评分在151至297之间，死亡率为23.3%。GRACE模型的总体区分能力较高（C统计量0.767，CI：0.712 - 0.822）。预测的和观察到的住院AMI死亡率之间存在高度相关性（R² = 0.833）。
GRACE评分是预测80岁及以上中国AMI患者医院死亡率的有用风险预测模型。
