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股票价格会让人疯狂吗?

Do stock prices drive people crazy?

作者信息

Lin Chung-Liang, Chen Chin-Shyan, Liu Tsai-Ching

机构信息

Department of Economics, National Dong Hwa University, 1, Sec. 2, Da Hsueh Rd, Shoufeng, Hualien 97401, Taiwan Department of Economics, National Taipei University, 151, University Rd, San Shia, New Taipei City 23741, Taiwan Department of Public Finance, National Taipei University, 151, University Rd, San Shia, New Taipei City 23741, Taiwan.

Department of Economics, National Dong Hwa University, 1, Sec. 2, Da Hsueh Rd, Shoufeng, Hualien 97401, Taiwan Department of Economics, National Taipei University, 151, University Rd, San Shia, New Taipei City 23741, Taiwan Department of Public Finance, National Taipei University, 151, University Rd, San Shia, New Taipei City 23741, Taiwan

出版信息

Health Policy Plan. 2015 Mar;30(2):206-14. doi: 10.1093/heapol/czu007. Epub 2014 Feb 13.

Abstract

This is the first research to examine a potential relation between stock market volatility and mental disorders. Using data on daily incidences of mental disorders in Taiwan over 4000 days from 1998 through 2009 to assess the time-series relation between stock price movements and mental disorders, we observe that stock price fluctuation clearly affects the hospitalization of mental disorders. We find that during a 12-year follow-up period, a low stock price index, a daily fall in the stock price index and consecutive daily falls in the stock price index are all associated with greater of mental disorders hospitalizations. A 1000-point fall in the TAIEX (Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index) increases the number of daily mental disorders hospitalizations by 4.71%. A 1% fall in the TAIEX in one single day increases daily hospitalizations for mental disorders by 0.36%. When the stock price index falls one consecutive day, it causes a daily increase of approximately 0.32% hospitalizations due to mental disorders on that day. Stock price index is found to be significant for both gender and all age groups. In addition, daily change is significant for both gender and middle-age groups, whereas accumulated change is significant for males and people aged 45-64. Stockholdings can help people accumulate wealth, but they can also increase mental disorders hospitalizations. In other words, stock price fluctuations do drive people crazy.

摘要

这是第一项研究股市波动与精神障碍之间潜在关系的研究。利用1998年至2009年台湾地区4000多天的精神障碍每日发病率数据,来评估股价变动与精神障碍之间的时间序列关系,我们观察到股价波动明显影响精神障碍的住院率。我们发现,在12年的随访期内,低股价指数、股价指数的日跌幅以及股价指数的连续日跌幅均与精神障碍住院率的增加有关。台湾证券交易所加权股价指数(TAIEX)下跌1000点,精神障碍每日住院人数增加4.71%。TAIEX单日下跌1%,精神障碍每日住院人数增加0.36%。当股价指数连续下跌一天时,当天因精神障碍导致的住院人数每天增加约0.32%。股价指数对性别和所有年龄组均具有显著性。此外,日变化对性别和中年组均具有显著性,而累积变化对男性和45 - 64岁的人群具有显著性。持有股票可以帮助人们积累财富,但也会增加精神障碍的住院率。换句话说,股价波动确实会让人发疯。

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