Wang Bing, Liu Shu-Zheng, Zheng Rong-Shou, Zhang Fang, Chen Wan-Qing, Sun Xi-Bin
Department of Internal Neurology, Henan Provincial People's Hospital, Zhengzhou, China E-mail :
Asian Pac J Cancer Prev. 2014;15(1):191-3. doi: 10.7314/apjcp.2014.15.1.191.
The aim of this study was to examine the trend of ovary cancer incidence from 1999 to 2010 in China and predict the burden up to 2020. Crude incidence, age specific incidence and age-adjusted incidence rates were calculated. Joinpoint regression was performed to obtain estimated annual percentages and Bayesian age-period- cohort modeling was used to predict the incidence rate until the year 2020. In China, the crude rate of ovary cancer was 7.91/100,000 and the age-adjusted rate was 5.35/100,000 overall during period 1999-2010. The rates in urban regions were higher than in rural regions. A significant rising trend during 1999-2006 was followed by a drop during 2006-2010 in age-adjusted rates for urban females. In contrast, constant rise was observed in rural women. The decrease in ovary cancer of urban areas tended to be restricted to women aged 50 years and younger. In contrast, increases of ovary cancer in rural areas appeared in virtually all age groups. Although the age-adjusted incidence rate for ovary cancer was predicted to be reduced after year 2011, the crude rate was likely to be relative stable up to 2020. The burden of ovary cancer in China will continue to be relative stable due to the aging population.
本研究旨在调查1999年至2010年中国卵巢癌发病率趋势，并预测至2020年的疾病负担。计算了粗发病率、年龄别发病率和年龄调整发病率。采用Joinpoint回归分析得出估计的年变化百分比，并运用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测至2020年的发病率。1999 - 2010年期间，中国卵巢癌粗发病率为7.91/10万，年龄调整发病率为5.35/10万。城市地区发病率高于农村地区。城市女性年龄调整发病率在1999 - 2006年呈显著上升趋势，随后在2006 - 2010年下降。相比之下，农村女性发病率持续上升。城市地区卵巢癌发病率下降趋势主要限于50岁及以下女性。相反，农村地区几乎所有年龄组的卵巢癌发病率均上升。尽管预计2011年后卵巢癌年龄调整发病率会下降，但到2020年粗发病率可能相对稳定。由于人口老龄化，中国卵巢癌疾病负担将继续保持相对稳定。
