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利用计算机决策工具做出低碳电力组合的知情公众选择。

Informed public choices for low-carbon electricity portfolios using a computer decision tool.

机构信息

RAND Corporation, 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, United States.

出版信息

Environ Sci Technol. 2014 Apr 1;48(7):3640-8. doi: 10.1021/es403473x. Epub 2014 Mar 11.

Abstract

Reducing CO2 emissions from the electricity sector will likely require policies that encourage the widespread deployment of a diverse mix of low-carbon electricity generation technologies. Public discourse informs such policies. To make informed decisions and to productively engage in public discourse, citizens need to understand the trade-offs between electricity technologies proposed for widespread deployment. Building on previous paper-and-pencil studies, we developed a computer tool that aimed to help nonexperts make informed decisions about the challenges faced in achieving a low-carbon energy future. We report on an initial usability study of this interactive computer tool. After providing participants with comparative and balanced information about 10 electricity technologies, we asked them to design a low-carbon electricity portfolio. Participants used the interactive computer tool, which constrained portfolio designs to be realistic and yield low CO2 emissions. As they changed their portfolios, the tool updated information about projected CO2 emissions, electricity costs, and specific environmental impacts. As in the previous paper-and-pencil studies, most participants designed diverse portfolios that included energy efficiency, nuclear, coal with carbon capture and sequestration, natural gas, and wind. Our results suggest that participants understood the tool and used it consistently. The tool may be downloaded from http://cedmcenter.org/tools-for-cedm/informing-the-public-about-low-carbon-technologies/ .

摘要

减少电力部门的二氧化碳排放可能需要政策来鼓励广泛部署各种低碳发电技术。公众讨论为这些政策提供了信息。为了做出明智的决策并在公众讨论中进行富有成效的参与,公民需要了解广泛部署的电力技术之间的权衡。在之前的纸笔研究的基础上,我们开发了一种计算机工具,旨在帮助非专家就实现低碳能源未来所面临的挑战做出明智的决策。我们报告了对这个交互式计算机工具的初步可用性研究。在向参与者提供关于 10 种电力技术的比较和平衡信息后,我们要求他们设计一个低碳电力投资组合。参与者使用交互式计算机工具,该工具将投资组合设计限制为现实且产生低二氧化碳排放。随着他们改变投资组合,该工具会更新有关预计二氧化碳排放、电力成本和特定环境影响的信息。与之前的纸笔研究一样,大多数参与者设计了多样化的投资组合,其中包括能源效率、核能、碳捕获和封存的煤炭、天然气和风力发电。我们的研究结果表明,参与者理解了该工具并一致地使用了它。该工具可从 http://cedmcenter.org/tools-for-cedm/informing-the-public-about-low-carbon-technologies/ 下载。

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