Department of Economics, Pomona College, Claremont, California 91711, USA.
Death Stud. 2012 Feb;36(2):182-9. doi: 10.1080/07481187.2011.553342.
It has been reported that professional baseball players whose first names begin with the letter "D" tend to die relatively young (E. L. Abel & M. L. Kruger, 2010). However, the statistical evidence for this claim is based on selective data and a statistical test that ignores important confounding influences. A valid test applied to more comprehensive data from the same source does not show a statistically significant relationship between initials and longevity. In addition, data for the years 1960 through 2004 for 6.7 million White, non-Hispanic California decedents do not replicate the claim that D's die young.
据报道，名字以字母“D”开头的职业棒球运动员往往相对年轻就去世了（E. L. Abel 和 M. L. Kruger，2010）。然而，这一说法的统计证据基于选择性数据和一个忽略了重要混杂因素的统计检验。应用于同一来源更全面数据的有效检验并没有显示姓氏首字母与寿命之间存在统计学上显著的关系。此外，对于 1960 年至 2004 年 670 万白种、非西班牙裔加利福尼亚死者的数据也没有复制 D 姓人早逝的说法。
