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模拟使用经杀虫剂处理的牛来控制多宿主种群中的采采蝇和布氏罗得西亚锥虫。

Modelling the use of insecticide-treated cattle to control tsetse and Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense in a multi-host population.

作者信息

Kajunguri Damian, Hargrove John W, Ouifki Rachid, Mugisha J Y T, Coleman Paul G, Welburn Susan C

机构信息

DST/NRF Centre of Excellence in Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA), University of Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, South Africa,

出版信息

Bull Math Biol. 2014 Mar;76(3):673-96. doi: 10.1007/s11538-014-9938-6. Epub 2014 Mar 1.

Abstract

We present a mathematical model for the transmission of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense by tsetse vectors to a multi-host population. To control tsetse and T. b. rhodesiense, a proportion, ψ, of cattle (one of the hosts considered in the model) is taken to be kept on treatment with insecticides. Analytical expressions are obtained for the basic reproduction number, R0n in the absence, and R(0n)(T) in the presence of insecticide-treated cattle (ITC). Stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium was carried out for the case when there is one vertebrate host untreated with insecticide. By considering three vertebrate hosts (cattle, humans and wildlife) the sensitivity analysis was carried out on the basic reproduction number (R(0n)(T)) in the absence and presence of ITC. The results show that R(03)(T) is more sensitive to changes in the tsetse mortality. The model is then used to study the control of tsetse and T. b. rhodesiense in humans through application insecticides to cattle either over the whole-body or to restricted areas of the body known to be favoured tsetse feeding sites. Numerical results show that while both ITC strategies result in decreases in tsetse density and in the incidence of T. b. rhodesiense in humans, the restricted application technique results in improved cost-effectiveness, providing a cheap, safe, environmentally friendly and farmer based strategy for the control of vectors and T. b. rhodesiense in humans.

摘要

我们提出了一个关于罗德西亚布氏锥虫通过采采蝇媒介传播到多宿主种群的数学模型。为了控制采采蝇和罗德西亚布氏锥虫,模型中考虑的宿主之一——牛群中的一部分比例ψ被设定为持续接受杀虫剂处理。得出了在无杀虫剂处理牛群时的基本繁殖数(R_{0n})以及在有经杀虫剂处理牛群(ITC)时的(R_{(0n)}(T))的解析表达式。对于存在一个未接受杀虫剂处理的脊椎动物宿主的情况,进行了无病平衡点的稳定性分析。通过考虑三个脊椎动物宿主(牛、人类和野生动物),对有无ITC情况下的基本繁殖数(R_{(0n)}(T))进行了敏感性分析。结果表明,(R_{(03)}(T))对采采蝇死亡率的变化更为敏感。然后,该模型被用于研究通过对牛群进行全身或对采采蝇已知偏好的身体特定部位施用杀虫剂来控制采采蝇和人类中的罗德西亚布氏锥虫。数值结果表明,虽然两种ITC策略都能使采采蝇密度和人类中罗德西亚布氏锥虫的发病率降低,但局部施用技术提高了成本效益,为控制媒介和人类中的罗德西亚布氏锥虫提供了一种廉价、安全、环保且基于农民的策略。

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