Miller Kimberly A, Bell Trent P, Germano Jennifer M
Allan Wilson Centre for Molecular Ecology and Evolution, School of Biological Sciences, Victoria University of Wellington, P.O. Box 600, Wellington, 6140, New Zealand; School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Building 18, Victoria, 3800, Australia; Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Parkville 3010, Victoria, Australia.
Conserv Biol. 2014 Aug;28(4):1045-56. doi: 10.1111/cobi.12254. Epub 2014 Mar 8.
The intentional translocation of animals is an important tool for species conservation and ecosystem restoration, but reported success rates are low, particularly for threatened and endangered species. Publication bias further distorts success rates because the results of successful translocations may be more likely to be published than failed translocations. We conducted the first comprehensive review of all published and unpublished translocations of herpetofauna in New Zealand to assess publication bias. Of 74 translocations of 29 species in 25 years, 35 have been reported in the published literature, and the outcomes of 12 have been published. Using a traditional definition of success, publication bias resulted in a gross overestimate of translocation success rates (41.7% and 8.1% for published and all translocations, respectively), but bias against failed translocations was minimal (8.3% and 6.8%, respectively). Publication bias against translocations with uncertain outcomes, the vast majority of projects, was also strong (50.0% and 85.1% for published and all translocations, respectively). Recent translocations were less likely to be published than older translocations. The reasons behind translocations were related to publication. A greater percentage of translocations for conservation and research were published (63.3% and 40.0%, respectively) than translocations for mitigation during land development (10.0%). Translocations conducted in collaboration with a university were more frequently published (82.7% and 24.4%, respectively). To account for some of this publication bias, we reassessed the outcome of each translocation using a standardized definition of success, which takes into consideration the species' life history and the time since release. Our standardized definition of translocation success provided a more accurate summary of success rates and allows for a more rigorous evaluation of the causes of translocation success and failure in large-scale reviews.
动物的有意迁移是物种保护和生态系统恢复的一项重要手段，但据报道其成功率较低，尤其是对于濒危物种而言。发表偏倚进一步扭曲了成功率，因为成功迁移的结果可能比失败迁移的结果更有可能被发表。我们对新西兰所有已发表和未发表的爬行类和两栖类动物迁移进行了首次全面综述，以评估发表偏倚。在25年里对29个物种进行的74次迁移中，有35次已在已发表文献中报道，其中12次迁移的结果已被发表。按照传统的成功定义，发表偏倚导致对迁移成功率的严重高估（已发表的迁移成功率为41.7%，所有迁移的成功率为8.1%），但对失败迁移的偏倚最小（分别为8.3%和6.8%）。对结果不确定的迁移（绝大多数项目）的发表偏倚也很严重（已发表的迁移为50.0%，所有迁移为85.1%）。与较早期的迁移相比，近期的迁移不太可能被发表。迁移背后的原因与发表情况有关。用于保护和研究的迁移发表的比例更高（分别为63.3%和40.0%），高于土地开发期间用于缓解影响的迁移（10.0%）。与大学合作进行的迁移更频繁地被发表（分别为82.7%和24.4%）。为了考虑到部分发表偏倚，我们使用成功的标准化定义重新评估了每次迁移的结果，该定义考虑了物种的生活史和放归后的时间。我们对迁移成功的标准化定义更准确地总结了成功率，并能在大规模综述中对迁移成功和失败的原因进行更严格的评估。
