Plagányi Éva E, van Putten Ingrid, Thébaud Olivier, Hobday Alistair J, Innes James, Lim-Camacho Lilly, Norman-López Ana, Bustamante Rodrigo H, Farmery Anna, Fleming Aysha, Frusher Stewart, Green Bridget, Hoshino Eriko, Jennings Sarah, Pecl Gretta, Pascoe Sean, Schrobback Peggy, Thomas Linda
Climate Adaptation Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Climate Adaptation Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
PLoS One. 2014 Mar 14;9(3):e91833. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0091833. eCollection 2014.
A theoretical basis is required for comparing key features and critical elements in wild fisheries and aquaculture supply chains under a changing climate. Here we develop a new quantitative metric that is analogous to indices used to analyse food-webs and identify key species. The Supply Chain Index (SCI) identifies critical elements as those elements with large throughput rates, as well as greater connectivity. The sum of the scores for a supply chain provides a single metric that roughly captures both the resilience and connectedness of a supply chain. Standardised scores can facilitate cross-comparisons both under current conditions as well as under a changing climate. Identification of key elements along the supply chain may assist in informing adaptation strategies to reduce anticipated future risks posed by climate change. The SCI also provides information on the relative stability of different supply chains based on whether there is a fairly even spread in the individual scores of the top few key elements, compared with a more critical dependence on a few key individual supply chain elements. We use as a case study the Australian southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii fishery, which is challenged by a number of climate change drivers such as impacts on recruitment and growth due to changes in large-scale and local oceanographic features. The SCI identifies airports, processors and Chinese consumers as the key elements in the lobster supply chain that merit attention to enhance stability and potentially enable growth. We also apply the index to an additional four real-world Australian commercial fishery and two aquaculture industry supply chains to highlight the utility of a systematic method for describing supply chains. Overall, our simple methodological approach to empirically-based supply chain research provides an objective method for comparing the resilience of supply chains and highlighting components that may be critical.
在气候变化背景下，比较野生渔业和水产养殖供应链的关键特征与关键要素需要一个理论基础。在此，我们开发了一种新的定量指标，它类似于用于分析食物网和识别关键物种的指数。供应链指数（SCI）将关键要素确定为那些具有高流通率以及更高连通性的要素。供应链各项得分之和提供了一个单一指标，大致能反映供应链的恢复力和连通性。标准化得分有助于在当前条件以及气候变化条件下进行交叉比较。识别供应链中的关键要素可能有助于制定适应策略，以降低气候变化带来的预期未来风险。SCI还能根据少数几个关键要素的个体得分分布是否较为均匀，与对少数几个关键个体供应链要素的更关键依赖相比，提供不同供应链相对稳定性的信息。我们以澳大利亚南部岩龙虾渔业为例进行研究，该渔业受到多种气候变化驱动因素的挑战，比如大规模和局部海洋学特征变化对幼体补充和生长的影响。SCI确定机场、加工商和中国消费者是龙虾供应链中值得关注的关键要素，以增强稳定性并可能实现增长。我们还将该指数应用于另外四个澳大利亚现实商业渔业和两个水产养殖业供应链，以突出一种描述供应链的系统方法的实用性。总体而言，我们基于实证的供应链研究的简单方法为比较供应链的恢复力和突出可能关键的组成部分提供了一种客观方法。
