Blayneh Kbenesh W, Mohammed-Awel Jemal
Department of Mathematics, Florida A&M University, Tallahassee, FL 32307, USA.
Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Valdosta State University, Valdosta, GA 31698, USA.
Math Biosci. 2014 Jun;252:14-26. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2014.03.007. Epub 2014 Mar 19.
The emergence of insecticide-resistant mosquitoes strongly challenges the fight against mosquito-borne diseases, in particular malaria. In this paper, we formulate a system of nonlinear difference equations for malaria transmission cycle. Our model incorporates compartments for insecticide-resistant mosquitoes, where mutation is the only evolutionary force involved in the occurrence of resistant allele in the mosquito population. By deriving an epidemiological threshold, the global stability of the disease and the resistance-free fixed point is established for reduced recruitment rates of resistant mosquitoes. Furthermore, by employing numerical techniques, we showed that the mosquito-human transmission cycle of malaria and its prevalence could be impacted by mutation rate, the personal protection of hosts and the density of mosquitoes. Our results highlight that given a large mosquito population, the presence of even a small number of resistant mosquitoes to an insecticide could make the insecticide ineffective for malaria control. This suggests the need for effective insecticide management strategy, alternate mosquito control approaches, educating the public about personal protection and reduction of mosquito population in a given environment.
抗杀虫剂蚊子的出现给抗击蚊媒疾病,尤其是疟疾带来了巨大挑战。在本文中,我们为疟疾传播周期建立了一个非线性差分方程组。我们的模型纳入了抗杀虫剂蚊子的区室,其中突变是蚊子种群中抗性等位基因出现所涉及的唯一进化力量。通过推导一个流行病学阈值,对于抗性蚊子招募率降低的情况,建立了疾病的全局稳定性和无抗性不动点。此外,通过运用数值技术,我们表明疟疾的蚊媒传播周期及其流行程度可能会受到突变率、宿主的个人防护以及蚊子密度的影响。我们的结果突出表明,在蚊子数量众多的情况下,即使存在少量对某种杀虫剂具有抗性的蚊子,也可能使该杀虫剂对疟疾控制无效。这表明需要有效的杀虫剂管理策略、替代的蚊子控制方法、对公众进行个人防护教育以及在特定环境中减少蚊子数量。