Roug Annette, Clifford Deana, Mazet Joana, Kazwala Rudovick, John Julius, Coppolillo Peter, Smith Woutrina
Trop Anim Health Prod. 2014 Jun;46(5):837-43. doi: 10.1007/s11250-014-0574-9.
While many studies investigate animal-related risk factors for disease, few have considered environmental or spatial risk factors in the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and brucellosis. In the Ruaha ecosystem of Tanzania, we investigated the role of household location as a predictor for infection with Mycobacterium bovis and exposure to Brucella in pastoralist and agropastoralist cattle herds in a typical African wildlife-livestock-human interface. ArcGIS was utilized to calculate Euclidian distances between households and the nearest river, village center, protected area, and other infected households, followed by multivariate logistic regression to assess the association between risk factors and herd-level bTB and Brucella outcomes. Global and local spatial clustering of bTB-infected and Brucella-exposed herds was explored using the Cuzick-Edward’s test and SaTScan spatial scan statistics. Households located farther from rivers and closer to village centers and herds belonging to agropastoralists were more likely to have bTB-positive cattle. Risk of Brucella exposure increased with proximity to protected areas. One spatial cluster of households with Brucella spp. seropositive cattle was identified. Spatial factors may be useful for assessing disease risk and for formulating intervention and control strategies for households that manage cattle in ecosystems characterized by seasonally limited resources and intense wildlife-livestock interfaces.
虽然许多研究调查了与动物相关的疾病风险因素，但很少有研究考虑环境或空间风险因素在牛结核病（bTB）和布鲁氏菌病动态中的作用。在坦桑尼亚的鲁阿哈生态系统中，我们调查了家庭位置在典型的非洲野生动物-家畜-人类界面中，作为牛分枝杆菌感染和布鲁氏菌暴露预测因素在牧民和农牧民牛群中的作用。利用ArcGIS计算家庭与最近河流、村庄中心、保护区和其他受感染家庭之间的欧几里得距离，随后进行多变量逻辑回归，以评估风险因素与牛群水平的bTB和布鲁氏菌结果之间的关联。使用Cuzick-Edward检验和SaTScan空间扫描统计方法探索了bTB感染和布鲁氏菌暴露牛群的全局和局部空间聚类。距离河流较远、距离村庄中心较近的家庭以及属于农牧民的牛群，其牛更有可能感染bTB。布鲁氏菌暴露风险随着靠近保护区而增加。确定了一个布鲁氏菌属血清阳性牛的家庭空间聚类。空间因素可能有助于评估疾病风险，并为在资源季节性有限且野生动物与家畜界面密集的生态系统中管理牛群的家庭制定干预和控制策略。
