Marine Biology Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego, La Jolla, CA, 92023, USA.
Ecol Lett. 2014 Jun;17(6):743-55. doi: 10.1111/ele.12273. Epub 2014 Mar 26.
An individual's phenotype will usually influence its probability of survival. However, when evaluating the dynamics of populations, the role of selective mortality is not always clear. Not all mortality is selective, patterns of selective mortality may vary, and it is often unknown how selective mortality compares or interacts with other sources of mortality. As a result, there is seldom a clear expectation for how changes in the phenotypic composition of populations will translate into differences in average survival. We address these issues by evaluating how selective mortality affects recruitment of fish populations. First, we provide a quantitative review of selective mortality. Our results show that most of the mortality during early life is selective, and that variation in phenotypes can have large effects on survival. Next, we describe an analytical framework that accounts for variation in selection, while also describing the amount of selective mortality experienced by different cohorts recruiting to a single population. This framework is based on reconstructing fitness surfaces from phenotypic selection measurements, and can be employed for either single or multiple traits. Finally, we show how this framework can be integrated with models of density-dependent survival to improve our understanding of recruitment variability and population dynamics.
个体的表型通常会影响其生存概率。然而，在评估种群动态时，选择性死亡的作用并不总是很清楚。并非所有的死亡都是选择性的，选择性死亡的模式可能会有所不同，而且通常不清楚选择性死亡与其他死亡来源相比如何，以及它们如何相互作用。因此，对于种群表型组成的变化将如何转化为平均生存的差异，通常没有明确的预期。我们通过评估选择性死亡如何影响鱼类种群的补充来解决这些问题。首先，我们对选择性死亡进行了定量综述。我们的结果表明，大多数早期生活中的死亡是选择性的，表型的变化可以对生存产生很大的影响。其次，我们描述了一个分析框架，该框架考虑了选择的变化，同时还描述了不同群体补充到单个种群时经历的选择性死亡量。该框架基于从表型选择测量中重建适应度曲面，可用于单个或多个特征。最后，我们展示了如何将该框架与密度依赖生存模型相结合，以提高我们对补充变异性和种群动态的理解。
