Department of Pharmacy, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands; Department of Economics, Econometrics and Finance, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands.
Policy Analysis and Public Management Department and Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.
PLoS One. 2014 Apr 2;9(4):e89415. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0089415. eCollection 2014.
This work is the first attempt to quantify the overall effects of a 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) vaccination programme in the Dutch population taking into account all the direct and indirect effects of the vaccine on invasive pneumococcal disease. Using available Dutch data, a dynamic transmission model for the spread of pneumococci and potential subsequent invasive pneumococcal disease has been adapted to the Dutch setting. Overall, invasive pneumococcal disease cases in the Netherlands are predicted to decrease from a pre-vaccination level of 2623 cases annually to 2475, 2289, 2185, 2179, and 2178 cases annually 5-, 10-, 20-, 30-, and 40-years, respectively, post-vaccination. Therefore, vaccination with PCV13 in the Netherlands is predicted to lower invasive pneumococcal disease cases per year by up to 445 cases in the medium- to long-term. The results are quite robust for the sensitivity analyses performed on the parameters that regulate herd immunity and competition between vaccine and non-vaccine types.
这项工作首次尝试量化 13 价肺炎球菌结合疫苗（PCV13）接种计划在荷兰人群中的总体效果，同时考虑到疫苗对侵袭性肺炎球菌病的所有直接和间接影响。利用现有的荷兰数据，我们对用于传播肺炎球菌和潜在侵袭性肺炎球菌病的动态传播模型进行了调整，以适应荷兰的情况。总体而言，荷兰侵袭性肺炎球菌病病例预计将从疫苗接种前的每年 2623 例降至接种后 5、10、20、30 和 40 年每年的 2475、2289、2185、2179 和 2178 例。因此，在荷兰接种 PCV13 预计将在中至长期内每年减少多达 445 例侵袭性肺炎球菌病病例。对于调节群体免疫和疫苗与非疫苗型之间竞争的参数进行的敏感性分析结果相当稳健。
