Cost-effectiveness models of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: variability and impact of modeling assumptions.

Currently, 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV); and ten-valent PCV vaccine are marketed. Neither vaccine obtained regulatory approval based on efficacy trials, but instead were approved based on a surrogate end point: immunogenicity data measuring effective antibody levels. Therefore, direct measures of efficacy were unavailable at the time economic analyses were conducted. The authors systematically reviewed cost-effectiveness studies of ten-valent PCV and 13-valent PCV from the literature to analyze the methodologies and compare the assumptions made about vaccine effectiveness. The following three inputs were found the most variant across analyses: efficacy against acute otitis media; inclusion of indirect effects; and cross protection. These assumptions are discussed with regard to the validity of supporting data and implications on decision-making.