Connolly Michael J
J R Army Med Corps. 2015 Mar;161(1):32-5. doi: 10.1136/jramc-2013-000225. Epub 2014 Apr 2.
The period to 2035 is likely to be characterised by instability between states and in relations between groups within states. It is predicted to include climate change, rapid population growth, resource scarcity, resurgence in ideology, and shifts in power from west to east. Many of these changes are likely to have an impact on the health of civil societies and those military personnel deployed by states to counter these challenges. This paper considers the potential impact of emerging global strategic trends on health service support (HSS) in the Future Operating Environment 2035. Global Strategic Trends-Out to 2040, The Future Character of Conflict and NATO Strategic Foresight Analysis Report 2013 provide the foundations of the paper. The study concludes that future impacts on HSS are neither completely predictable nor predetermined, and there is always a possibility of a strategic shock. Knowledge of vulnerability, however, allows an informed approach to the development and evaluation of adaptive strategies to lessen risks to health.
到2035年这段时期的特点可能是国家之间以及国家内部不同群体之间关系的不稳定。预计这期间将包括气候变化、人口快速增长、资源稀缺、意识形态的复兴以及权力从西方向东转移。其中许多变化可能会对公民社会的健康以及各国为应对这些挑战而部署的军事人员产生影响。本文探讨了新兴全球战略趋势对2035年未来作战环境中卫生服务保障（HSS）的潜在影响。《至2040年全球战略趋势》《冲突的未来特征》以及《北约2013年战略前瞻性分析报告》为本文奠定了基础。研究得出结论，未来对卫生服务保障的影响既不是完全可预测的，也不是预先确定的，而且始终存在战略冲击的可能性。然而，了解脆弱性有助于以明智的方式制定和评估适应性战略，以降低对健康的风险。
