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气候变化对中国晋江流域水资源可利用性的影响。

Influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China.

作者信息

Sun Wenchao, Wang Jie, Li Zhanjie, Yao Xiaolei, Yu Jingshan

机构信息

College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Xinjiekouwai Street 19, Beijing 100875, China.

Interdisciplinary Graduate School of Medicine and Engineering, University of Yamanashi, 4-3-11, Takeda, Kofu, Yamanashi 400-8511, Japan.

出版信息

ScientificWorldJournal. 2014 Feb 17;2014:908349. doi: 10.1155/2014/908349. eCollection 2014.

DOI:10.1155/2014/908349
PMID:24701192
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3948646/
Abstract

The influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for A1B emission scenario (medium CO2 emission) in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period of a year it shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient to fulfill irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer.

摘要

利用采用马斯京根-康吉河道演算方法的分块TOP模型（BTOPMC）分布式水文模型，评估了气候变化对中国晋江流域水资源可利用性的影响。采用16个全球气候模型（GCMs）针对2050年代A1B排放情景（中等二氧化碳排放）的降尺度输出集合平均值，构建区域气候变化情景。利用预测的降水和温度数据驱动BTOPMC，以预测2050年代的水文变化。结果表明，一年中大部分时间蒸发散将增加。夏末至初秋径流呈增加趋势，而一年中的其他时段呈减少趋势，尤其是春季。从水资源可利用性角度来看，表明春季水资源可能不足以满足灌溉用水需求，一种可能的解决办法是前一年夏季在水库中储存更多的水。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/c2a7e47f0bbb/TSWJ2014-908349.009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/171d10d6766c/TSWJ2014-908349.001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/3bdca62dd84f/TSWJ2014-908349.002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/895e43ff6537/TSWJ2014-908349.003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/ea1dffd6a9ac/TSWJ2014-908349.004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/aa1be319c78d/TSWJ2014-908349.005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/98ba82278b9a/TSWJ2014-908349.006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/21768d78f9a6/TSWJ2014-908349.007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/1c55679d0eae/TSWJ2014-908349.008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/c2a7e47f0bbb/TSWJ2014-908349.009.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/171d10d6766c/TSWJ2014-908349.001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/3bdca62dd84f/TSWJ2014-908349.002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/895e43ff6537/TSWJ2014-908349.003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/ea1dffd6a9ac/TSWJ2014-908349.004.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/aa1be319c78d/TSWJ2014-908349.005.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/98ba82278b9a/TSWJ2014-908349.006.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/21768d78f9a6/TSWJ2014-908349.007.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/1c55679d0eae/TSWJ2014-908349.008.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5f11/3948646/c2a7e47f0bbb/TSWJ2014-908349.009.jpg

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