Department of Renewable Resources, Faculty of Agricultural, Life, and Environmental Sciences, University of Alberta, 751 General Services Building, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2H1, Canada.
Glob Chang Biol. 2014 Aug;20(8):2607-17. doi: 10.1111/gcb.12604. Epub 2014 May 26.
We evaluate genetic test plantations of North American Douglas-fir provenances in Europe to quantify how tree populations respond when subjected to climate regime shifts, and we examined whether bioclimate envelope models developed for North America to guide assisted migration under climate change can retrospectively predict the success of these provenance transfers to Europe. The meta-analysis is based on long-term growth data of 2800 provenances transferred to 120 European test sites. The model was generally well suited to predict the best performing provenances along north-south gradients in Western Europe, but failed to predict superior performance of coastal North American populations under continental climate conditions in Eastern Europe. However, model projections appear appropriate when considering additional information regarding adaptation of Douglas-fir provenances to withstand frost and drought, even though the model partially fails in a validation against growth traits alone. We conclude by applying the partially validated model to climate change scenarios for Europe, demonstrating that climate trends observed over the last three decades warrant changes to current use of Douglas-fir provenances in plantation forestry throughout Western and Central Europe.
我们评估了欧洲北美的花旗松种源的遗传测试林分，以量化树木种群在受到气候制度转变时的响应情况，并研究了为指导在气候变化下的辅助迁移而开发的针对北美的生物气候包络模型，能否回顾性地预测这些种源向欧洲转移的成功。该荟萃分析基于 2800 个种源在 120 个欧洲试验点的长期生长数据。该模型通常非常适合预测西欧南北梯度中表现最好的种源，但未能预测在东欧大陆气候条件下沿海北美的种群表现更好。然而，当考虑有关花旗松种源适应抵御霜冻和干旱的额外信息时，模型预测似乎是合适的，尽管该模型在仅根据生长特征进行验证时部分失效。最后，我们通过将部分验证的模型应用于欧洲的气候变化情景，证明过去三十年来观察到的气候趋势需要改变当前在西欧和中欧的人工林种植中对花旗松种源的使用。
