Foundation for Systems Research and Education New York, NY, USA.
Front Comput Neurosci. 2014 Mar 31;8:30. doi: 10.3389/fncom.2014.00030. eCollection 2014.
Medicine devotes its primary focus to understanding change, from cells to network relationships; observations of non-linearity are inescapable. Recent events provide extraordinary examples of major non-linear surprises within the societal system: human genome-from anticipated 100,000+ genes to only 20,000+; junk DNA-initially ignored but now proven to control genetic processes; economic reversals-bursting of bubbles in technology, housing, finance; foreign wars; relentless rise in obesity, neurodegenerative diseases. There are two attributes of systems science that are especially relevant to this research: One-it offers a method for creating a structural context with a guiding path to pragmatic knowledge; and, two-it gives pre-eminence to sensory input capable to register, evaluate, and react to change.
MATERIALS/METHODS: Public domain records of change, during the last 50 years, have been studied in the context of systems science, the dynamic systems model, and various cycles.
RESULTS/CONCLUSIONS: Change is dynamic, ever-present, never isolated, and of variable impact; it reflects innumerable relationships among contextual systems; change can be perceived as risk or uncertainty depending upon how the assessment is made; risk is quantifiable by sensory input and generates a degree of rational optimism; uncertainty is not quantifiable and evokes fear; trust is key to sharing risk; the measurable financial credit can be a proxy for societal trust; expanding credit dilutes trust; when a credit bubble bursts, so will trust; absence of trust paralyzes systems' relationships leading to disorganized complexity which prevents value creation and heightens the probability of random events; disappearance of value, accompanied by chaos, threatens all systems. From personal health to economic sustainability and collective rationality, most examined components of the societal system were found not to be optimized and trust was not in evidence.
医学主要专注于理解变化，从细胞到网络关系；不可避免地会观察到非线性现象。最近的事件提供了社会系统中重大非线性惊喜的非凡例子：人类基因组——从预期的 100,000+ 个基因到只有 20,000+个基因；垃圾 DNA——最初被忽视，但现在已被证明可以控制基因过程；经济逆转——技术、住房、金融泡沫破裂；外国战争；肥胖症、神经退行性疾病的持续上升。系统科学有两个特别相关的属性：一是它提供了一种创建具有指导实践知识路径的结构背景的方法；二是它赋予了能够注册、评估和对变化做出反应的感官输入以优先权。
材料/方法：在系统科学、动态系统模型和各种周期的背景下，研究了过去 50 年中变化的公共领域记录。
结果/结论：变化是动态的、始终存在的、从不孤立的，而且影响程度不同；它反映了上下文系统之间无数的关系；变化可以被视为风险或不确定性，具体取决于评估方式；风险可以通过感官输入进行量化，并产生一定程度的理性乐观；不确定性无法量化，并引起恐惧；信任是分担风险的关键；可衡量的金融信贷可以作为社会信任的代理；信贷扩张会稀释信任；当信贷泡沫破裂时，信任也将破裂；缺乏信任会使系统的关系瘫痪，导致无序的复杂性，从而阻止价值创造并增加随机事件的概率；价值的消失伴随着混乱，威胁着所有系统。从个人健康到经济可持续性和集体理性，社会系统的大多数被检查的组成部分都被发现没有得到优化，而且信任也没有得到体现。
