Analysis of the survival of cirrhotic patients enlisted for liver transplantation in the pre- and post-MELD era in southern Brazil.

CONTEXT

Transplantation is the only cure for decompensated cirrhosis. Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) is used in liver allocation.

OBJECTIVES

Comparing survival of enlisted populations in pre- and post-MELD eras and estimating their long-term survival.

METHODS

This is a retrospective study of cirrhotics enlisted for transplantation during pre- and post-MELD eras. Survival curves were generated using Kaplan-Meier's model. Cox's model was used to determine risk factors for mortality. Exponential, Weibull's, normal-log and Gompertz's models were used to estimate long-term survival.

RESULTS

The study included 162 patients enlisted in pre-MELD era and 184 in post-MELD period. Kaplan-Meier's survival curve of patients enlisted in post-MELD era was better than that of pre-MELD period (P = 0.009). This difference remained for long-term estimates, with a survival of 53.54% in 5 years and 44.64% in 10 years for patients enlisted in post-MELD era and of 43.17% and 41.75% for pre-MELD period. Era in which patients had been enlisted (P = 0.010) and MELD score at enlistment (P<0.001) were independently associated to survival with hazard ratios of 0.664 (95% CI-confidence interval = 0.487-0.906) and 1.069 (95% CI = 1.043-1.095).

CONCLUSIONS

MELD-based transplantation policy is superior to chronology-based one, promoting better survival for enlisted patients, even in long-term.