Peter A. Muennig and Michael Epstein are with the Department of Health Policy and Management, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY. Charles DiMaggio and Guohua Li are with the Center for Injury Epidemiology and Prevention, Columbia University Medical Center, New York NY. Charles DiMaggio and Guohua Li are also with the Department of Anesthesiology, College of Physicians and Surgeons, and the Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health.
Am J Public Health. 2014 Jul;104(7):1294-9. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2014.301868. Epub 2014 May 15.
We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of a package of roadway modifications in New York City funded under the Safe Routes to School (SRTS) program.
We used a Markov model to estimate long-term impacts of SRTS on injury reduction and the associated savings in medical costs, lifelong disability, and death. Model inputs included societal costs (in 2013 US dollars) and observed spatiotemporal changes in injury rates associated with New York City's implementation of SRTS relative to control intersections. Structural changes to roadways were assumed to last 50 years before further investment is required. Therefore, costs were discounted over 50 consecutive cohorts of modified roadway users under SRTS.
SRTS was associated with an overall net societal benefit of $230 million and 2055 quality-adjusted life years gained in New York City.
SRTS reduces injuries and saves money over the long run.
我们评估了纽约市安全路学校(SRTS)计划资助的一整套道路改造的成本效益。
我们使用马尔可夫模型来估计 SRTS 对减少伤害以及相关医疗费用、终身残疾和死亡节省的长期影响。模型输入包括社会成本(以 2013 年美元计算)和与纽约市实施 SRTS 相比,与对照交叉口相关的伤害率的观察到的时空变化。假设道路结构变化在需要进一步投资之前将持续 50 年。因此,在 50 个连续的 SRTS 改造道路使用者队列中,对成本进行了贴现。
SRTS 与纽约市的 2.3 亿美元总体社会净效益和 2055 个质量调整生命年的增加有关。
从长远来看,SRTS 减少了伤害并节省了资金。