Freedman Isaac G, Kim Ellen, Muennig Peter A
Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, USA.
Global Research Analytics for Population Health, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York City, USA.
Inj Epidemiol. 2018 Jun 4;5(1):24. doi: 10.1186/s40621-018-0153-z.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) will radically re-shape the health and well-being of people in the United States in good ways and bad. We set out to estimate a reasonable time-to-adoption using cost-effectivenessmodels to estimate the point at which AVs become reasonably safe and affordable for widespread adoption.
We used Waymo data (previously, Google Self-Driving Car Project) and a microsimulation model to explore projected costs and safety issues today and five years from today to get a sense of the speed of consumer adoption were AVs brought to the market.
The adoption of AVs for private use was associated with an ICER of 1,396,110/QALY gained today, a figure that would decline to 173,890/QALY gained 5-years in the future. However, AV taxis are both less expensive and potentially already safer than human-piloted taxis.
While AVs are not unlikely to be used a family vehicles any time soon, it would make economic sense to adopt them as taxis today. Legislation enhancing the benefits while mitigating the potential harmful health impacts of AV taxis is needed with some urgency.
自动驾驶汽车（AVs）将以好坏参半的方式从根本上重塑美国人的健康和福祉。我们着手使用成本效益模型来估计一个合理的采用时间，以确定自动驾驶汽车何时能变得足够安全且价格合理，从而得以广泛应用。
我们使用了Waymo的数据（之前的谷歌自动驾驶汽车项目）以及一个微观模拟模型，来探究当前以及从现在起五年后的预计成本和安全问题，以此了解自动驾驶汽车进入市场后消费者采用的速度。
如今，私人使用自动驾驶汽车每获得一个质量调整生命年（QALY）的增量成本效益比（ICER）为(1,396,110)，这个数字在未来五年将降至(173,890/QALY)。然而，自动驾驶出租车既比人类驾驶的出租车成本更低，而且可能已经更安全了。
虽然自动驾驶汽车短期内不太可能被用作家庭用车，但如今将它们用作出租车在经济上是合理的。迫切需要出台立法，在增加自动驾驶出租车益处的同时，减轻其对健康可能产生的有害影响。
