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验证滑坡频率-面积分布中通用指数的操作偏差和假设。

Validating the operational bias and hypothesis of universal exponent in landslide frequency-area distribution.

作者信息

Huang Jr-Chuan, Lee Tsung-Yu, Teng Tse-Yang, Chen Yi-Chin, Huang Cho-Ying, Lee Cheing-Tung

机构信息

Department of Geography, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan.

Taiwan Typhoon and Flood Research Institute, Taipei, Taiwan.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2014 May 22;9(5):e98125. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0098125. eCollection 2014.

Abstract

The exponent decay in landslide frequency-area distribution is widely used for assessing the consequences of landslides and with some studies arguing that the slope of the exponent decay is universal and independent of mechanisms and environmental settings. However, the documented exponent slopes are diverse and hence data processing is hypothesized for this inconsistency. An elaborated statistical experiment and two actual landslide inventories were used here to demonstrate the influences of the data processing on the determination of the exponent. Seven categories with different landslide numbers were generated from the predefined inverse-gamma distribution and then analyzed by three data processing procedures (logarithmic binning, LB, normalized logarithmic binning, NLB and cumulative distribution function, CDF). Five different bin widths were also considered while applying LB and NLB. Following that, the maximum likelihood estimation was used to estimate the exponent slopes. The results showed that the exponents estimated by CDF were unbiased while LB and NLB performed poorly. Two binning-based methods led to considerable biases that increased with the increase of landslide number and bin width. The standard deviations of the estimated exponents were dependent not just on the landslide number but also on binning method and bin width. Both extremely few and plentiful landslide numbers reduced the confidence of the estimated exponents, which could be attributed to limited landslide numbers and considerable operational bias, respectively. The diverse documented exponents in literature should therefore be adjusted accordingly. Our study strongly suggests that the considerable bias due to data processing and the data quality should be constrained in order to advance the understanding of landslide processes.

摘要

滑坡频率 - 面积分布中的指数衰减被广泛用于评估滑坡的后果,一些研究认为指数衰减的斜率是通用的,且与机制和环境背景无关。然而,文献记载的指数斜率各不相同,因此推测这种不一致是由数据处理导致的。本文采用了一个详细的统计实验和两个实际的滑坡清单来证明数据处理对指数确定的影响。从预定义的逆伽马分布生成了七类不同滑坡数量的数据,然后通过三种数据处理程序(对数分箱法,LB;归一化对数分箱法,NLB;以及累积分布函数法,CDF)进行分析。在应用LB和NLB时还考虑了五种不同的箱宽。随后,使用最大似然估计来估计指数斜率。结果表明,CDF估计的指数无偏差,而LB和NLB表现不佳。两种基于分箱的方法导致了相当大的偏差,且偏差随着滑坡数量和箱宽的增加而增大。估计指数的标准差不仅取决于滑坡数量,还取决于分箱方法和箱宽。极少和极多的滑坡数量都会降低估计指数的可信度,这分别可归因于滑坡数量有限和相当大的操作偏差。因此,文献中记载的不同指数应相应调整。我们的研究强烈表明,为了增进对滑坡过程的理解,应限制数据处理和数据质量导致的相当大的偏差。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/3b0c/4031134/4497f438c4ee/pone.0098125.g001.jpg

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