Shukla Vivek V, Nimbalkar Somashekhar M, Phatak Ajay G, Ganjiwale Jaishree D
Department of Pediatrics, Pramukhswami Medical College, Karamsad, Anand, Gujarat 388325, India.
Department of Pediatrics, Pramukhswami Medical College, Karamsad, Anand, Gujarat 388325, India ; Central Research Services, Charutar Arogya Mandal, Karamsad, Anand, Gujarat 388325, India.
Int J Pediatr. 2014;2014:703942. doi: 10.1155/2014/703942. Epub 2014 Apr 27.
Objective. Children have limited physiological reserve that deteriorates rapidly. Present study profiled patients admitted to PICU and determined PIM2 score applicability in Indian setting. Patients and Methods. Prospective observational study. Results. In 742 consecutive admissions, male : female ratio was 1.5 : 1, 35.6% patients were ventilated, observed mortality was 7%, and 26.4% were <1 year. The profile included septicemia and septic shock (29.6%), anemia (27.1%), pneumonia (19.6%), and meningitis and encephalitis (17.2%). For the first year, sensitivity of PIM2 was 65.8% and specificity was 71% for cutoff value at 1.9 by ROC curve analysis. The area under the curve was 0.724 (95% CI: 0.69, 0.76). This cutoff was validated for second year data yielding similar sensitivity (70.6%) and specificity (65%). Logistic regression analysis (LRA) over entire data revealed various variables independently associated with mortality along with PIM2 score. Another logistic model with same input variables except PIM2 yielded the same significant variables with Nagelkerke R square of 0.388 and correct classification of 78.5 revealing contribution of PIM2 in predicting mortality is meager. Conclusion. Infectious diseases were the commonest cause of PICU admission and mortality. PIM2 scoring did not explain the outcome adequately, suggesting need for recalibration. Following PALS/GEM guidelines was associated with better outcome.
目的。儿童的生理储备有限且迅速恶化。本研究对入住儿科重症监护病房(PICU)的患者进行了分析,并确定了小儿死亡风险指数2(PIM2)评分在印度环境中的适用性。
患者与方法。前瞻性观察研究。
结果。在742例连续入院患者中,男女比例为1.5∶1,35.6%的患者接受了通气治疗,观察到的死亡率为7%,26.4%的患者年龄小于1岁。病例包括败血症和感染性休克(29.6%)、贫血(27.1%)、肺炎(19.6%)以及脑膜炎和脑炎(17.2%)。通过ROC曲线分析,对于第一年的数据,PIM2在截断值为1.9时的敏感性为65.8%,特异性为71%。曲线下面积为0.724(95%置信区间:0.69,0.76)。该截断值在第二年的数据中得到验证,敏感性(70.6%)和特异性(65%)相似。对全部数据进行逻辑回归分析(LRA)显示,除PIM2评分外,还有各种变量与死亡率独立相关。另一个包含相同输入变量但不包括PIM2的逻辑模型产生了相同的显著变量,Nagelkerke R平方为0.388,正确分类率为78.5%,这表明PIM2在预测死亡率方面的贡献很小。
结论。传染病是入住PICU和导致死亡的最常见原因。PIM2评分不能充分解释结果,提示需要重新校准。遵循儿科高级生命支持(PALS)/综合急诊医学(GEM)指南与更好的结果相关。