Meirambayeva Aizhan, Vingilis Evelyn, McLeod A Ian, Elzohairy Yoassry, Xiao Jinkun, Zou Guangyong, Lai Yuanhao
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada; Population and Community Health Unit, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada.
Accid Anal Prev. 2014 Oct;71:72-81. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.05.009. Epub 2014 Jun 2.
The purpose of this study was to conduct a process and outcome evaluation of the deterrent impact of Ontario's street racing and stunt driving legislation which came into effect on September 30, 2007, on collision casualties defined as injuries and fatalities. It was hypothesized that because males, especially young ones, are much more likely to engage in speeding, street racing and stunt driving, the new law would have more impact in reducing speeding-related collision casualties in males when compared to females.
Interrupted time series analysis with ARIMA modelling was applied to the monthly speeding-related collision casualties in Ontario for the period of January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2010, separately for young male drivers 16-25 years of age (primary intervention group), mature male drivers 26-65 years of age (secondary intervention group), young female drivers 16-25 years of age (primary comparison group) and mature female drivers 26-65 years of age (secondary comparison group). A covariate adjustment using non-speeding casualties was included.
A significant intervention effect was found for young male drivers with, on average, 58 fewer collision casualties per month, but not for mature male drivers, when non-speeding casualties were controlled for. No corresponding effect was observed in either comparison (females) group.
These findings indicate a reduction in speeding-related casualties among young males of 58 fewer casualties per month subsequent to the introduction of Ontario's street racing and stunt driving legislation and suggest the presence of a general deterrent effect.
本研究旨在对安大略省于2007年9月30日生效的街头赛车和特技驾驶立法对定义为受伤和死亡的碰撞伤亡的威慑影响进行过程和结果评估。研究假设，由于男性，尤其是年轻男性，更有可能超速、参与街头赛车和特技驾驶，与女性相比，新法律在减少男性超速相关碰撞伤亡方面的影响会更大。
采用带有自回归积分滑动平均（ARIMA）建模的中断时间序列分析方法，对2002年1月1日至2010年12月31日安大略省每月与超速相关的碰撞伤亡情况进行分析，分别针对16至25岁的年轻男性驾驶员（主要干预组）、26至65岁的成年男性驾驶员（次要干预组）、16至25岁的年轻女性驾驶员（主要对照组）和26至65岁的成年女性驾驶员（次要对照组）。纳入了使用非超速伤亡情况进行的协变量调整。
在控制非超速伤亡情况后，发现年轻男性驾驶员有显著的干预效果，平均每月碰撞伤亡减少58例，但成年男性驾驶员没有。在两个对照组（女性）中均未观察到相应效果。
这些研究结果表明，安大略省街头赛车和特技驾驶立法实施后，年轻男性中与超速相关的伤亡每月减少58例，表明存在普遍的威慑作用。
