Wang Chen, Stamatiadis Nikiforos
Postdoctoral Research Associate, School of Naval, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 800 DongChuan Road, Shanghai 200240, China.
Civil Engineering Department, University of Kentucky, 265 Raymond Building, Lexington, KY 40506, USA.
Accid Anal Prev. 2014 Oct;71:82-92. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.05.004. Epub 2014 Jun 2.
The development of surrogate safety measures is essential due to the problems of availability and quality of historical crash data. The Aggregate Conflict Propensity Metric (ACPM) is a surrogate metric recently proposed and it is based on conflict studies and traffic simulations. ACPM is expected to be capable of assessing the relative safety levels of traffic facilities and/or treatments in order to help traffic engineers to select appropriate treatments based on traffic safety estimates. This paper presents three experimental tests conducted to evaluate the reliability of ACPM. In each test, ACPM is compared to a traditional conflict indicator in terms of identifying and ranking safety of traffic conditions under various traffic volumes based on traffic simulations. ACPM shows its strength and reliability in all three tests, as it provides results highly consistent with the Highway Safety Manual. The experimental tests indicate that ACPM is a promising surrogate safety measure that can appropriately identify relative safety among traffic treatments and/or facilities and provide traffic engineers with useful information on potential safety impact.
由于历史碰撞数据的可用性和质量问题，替代安全措施的开发至关重要。综合冲突倾向指标（ACPM）是最近提出的一种替代指标，它基于冲突研究和交通模拟。预计ACPM能够评估交通设施和/或处理措施的相对安全水平，以帮助交通工程师根据交通安全评估选择合适的处理措施。本文介绍了为评估ACPM的可靠性而进行的三项实验测试。在每项测试中，根据交通模拟，将ACPM与传统冲突指标在识别和排序不同交通流量下交通状况的安全性方面进行比较。ACPM在所有三项测试中都显示出了其优势和可靠性，因为它提供的结果与《公路安全手册》高度一致。实验测试表明，ACPM是一种有前景的替代安全措施，能够适当地识别交通处理措施和/或设施之间的相对安全性，并为交通工程师提供有关潜在安全影响的有用信息。
