Alves André T J, Nobre Flávio F
Geospat Health. 2014 May;8(2):437-43. doi: 10.4081/gh.2014.32.
Despite increased funding for research on the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), neither vaccine nor cure is yet in sight. Surveillance and prevention are essential for disease intervention, and it is recognised that spatio-temporal analysis of AIDS cases can assist the decision-making process for control of the disease. This study investigated the dynamic, spatial distribution of notified AIDS cases in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between 2001 and 2010, based on the annual incidence in each municipality. Sequential choropleth maps were developed and used to analyse the incidence distribution and Moran's I spatial autocorrelation statistics was applied for characterisation of the spatio-temporal distribution pattern. A significant, positive spatial autocorrelation of AIDS incidence was observed indicating that municipalities with high incidence are likely to be close to other municipalities with similarly high incidence and, conversely, municipalities with low incidence are likely to be surrounded by municipalities with low incidence. Two clusters were identified; one hotspot related to the State Capital and the other with low to intermediate AIDS incidence comprising municipalities in the north-eastern region of the State of Rio de Janeiro.
尽管对人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）和获得性免疫缺陷综合征（AIDS）的研究资金有所增加，但疫苗和治愈方法仍未见踪影。监测和预防对于疾病干预至关重要，并且人们认识到对艾滋病病例的时空分析有助于疾病控制的决策过程。本研究基于巴西里约热内卢州各城市的年发病率，调查了2001年至2010年间该州报告的艾滋病病例的动态空间分布。绘制了连续的分级统计图，并用于分析发病率分布，同时应用莫兰指数（Moran's I）空间自相关统计来表征时空分布模式。观察到艾滋病发病率存在显著的正空间自相关性，这表明高发病率的城市可能与其他发病率同样高的城市相邻，反之，低发病率的城市可能被低发病率的城市所包围。识别出了两个聚类；一个热点与州首府相关，另一个艾滋病发病率低至中等的聚类包括里约热内卢州东北部地区的城市。
