Montanha Rafaela Marito, Gioia Thamy Barbara, Ramos Antônio Carlos Vieira, Ferreira Natalia Marciano de Araujo, Torres Miguel Angel Fuentealba, Pimenta Rosângela Aparecida, Kerbauy Gilselena, Arcêncio Ricardo Alexandre, Pieri Flávia Meneguetti
Universidade Estadual de Londrina - Londrina (PR), Brazil.
Universidade Federal de Goiás - Samambaia (GO), Brazil.
Rev Bras Epidemiol. 2024 Apr 19;27:e240015. doi: 10.1590/1980-549720240015. eCollection 2024.
The aim of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the incidence rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the state of Paraná, Brazil.
An ecological study with an analytical component of time series analysis was conducted in the state of Paraná from 2007 to 2022. The data source was the Notifiable Diseases Information System. To study the trend, the Prais-Winsten generalized linear regression model was used by decomposing the time series, and for spatial analysis, the Moran's index was applied.
The total sample consisted of 50,676 HIV/AIDS records. The incidence rate showed an increasing trend, with an average growth of 2.14% [95% confidence interval - 95%CI 1.16-3.13] per month. From 2007 to 2014 and from 2015 to 2022, the average number of cases in the state was 105.64 and 159.20 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, with significant variation among municipalities. Spatial clusters of high risk persisted in the metropolitan region, the capital, and coastal areas, and a new cluster was observed in the northern region of the state.
The incidence rates of HIV/AIDS showed an upward trend over time. The number of cases varied considerably in some municipalities, especially in the coastal region. Spatial analysis revealed geospatial patterns of high risk in the main metropolitan areas of Paraná: Curitiba (including the coastal area), Londrina, and Maringá, which share characteristics such as a high degree of urbanization and ongoing economic development.
本研究旨在分析巴西巴拉那州人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）和获得性免疫缺陷综合征（AIDS）发病率的时空演变。
2007年至2022年在巴拉那州开展了一项包含时间序列分析这一分析成分的生态学研究。数据来源为法定传染病信息系统。为研究趋势，通过分解时间序列使用普雷斯-温斯坦广义线性回归模型，对于空间分析，应用莫兰指数。
总样本包括50676条HIV/AIDS记录。发病率呈上升趋势，每月平均增长2.14%[95%置信区间-95%CI 1.16 - 3.13]。2007年至2014年以及2015年至2022年，该州每10万居民中的病例平均数分别为105.64和159.20，各市之间存在显著差异。高风险的空间聚集在大都市区、首府和沿海地区持续存在，并且在该州北部地区观察到一个新的聚集区。
HIV/AIDS发病率随时间呈上升趋势。一些市的病例数差异很大，尤其是在沿海地区。空间分析揭示了巴拉那州主要大都市区的高风险地理空间模式：库里蒂巴（包括沿海地区）、隆德里纳和马林加，这些地区具有高度城市化和持续经济发展等共同特征。
