农民对气候变化的感知风险及影响因素:越南湄公河三角洲的一项研究
Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and influencing factors: a study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.
作者信息
Le Dang Hoa, Li Elton, Nuberg Ian, Bruwer Johan
机构信息
School of Agriculture, Food and Wine, The University of Adelaide, Waite Campus, Urrbrae, SA, 5064, Australia,
出版信息
Environ Manage. 2014 Aug;54(2):331-45. doi: 10.1007/s00267-014-0299-6. Epub 2014 Jun 4.
Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.
许多国家都在应对威胁农业生产和农民生活的气候变化。农民对气候变化的感知风险以及影响这些感知风险的因素,对于他们的适应性行为和精心规划的适应策略至关重要。然而,人们对这些问题的了解有限。在本文中,我们试图定量衡量农民对气候变化的感知风险,并探讨风险经历、信息、对气候变化的信念以及对公共适应措施的信任对这些感知风险的影响。数据来自对湄公河三角洲598名农民的结构化访谈。研究表明,农民对生产、身体健康和收入方面的感知风险更为重视,而对幸福和社会关系方面的风险关注较少。可归因于气候变化的事件经历会增加农民的感知风险。信息变量会增加或降低感知风险,这取决于信息来源。那些认为气候变化确实正在发生并影响其家庭生活的农民,在大多数方面感知到的风险更高。那些认为气候变化不是自己的事而是政府的事的农民,对身体健康、财务和生产方面的风险感知较低。至于对公共适应措施的信任,那些认为公共适应措施协调良好的农民,对生产和心理方面的风险感知较低。有趣的是,那些认为灾害预警系统运行良好的农民,对财务、生产和社会关系方面的风险感知较高。建议进一步关注气候变化及适应方面信息的质量、时机和渠道。