Tainio Marko, Holnicki Piotr, Loh Miranda M, Nahorski Zbigniew
Systems Research Institute, Polish Academy of Sciences, Newelska 6, 01-447, Warsaw, Poland; National Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), P.O. Box 95, FI-70701, Kuopio, Finland.
Risk Anal. 2014 Nov;34(11):2021-34. doi: 10.1111/risa.12221. Epub 2014 Jun 9.
The cost-effective mitigation of adverse health effects caused by air pollution requires information on the contribution of different emission sources to exposure. In urban areas the exposure potential of different sources may vary significantly depending on emission height, population density, and other factors. In this study, we quantified this intraurban variability by predicting intake fraction (iF) for 3,066 emission sources in Warsaw, Poland. iF describes the fraction of the pollutant that is inhaled by people in the study area. We considered the following seven pollutants: particulate matter (PM), nitrogen oxides (NOx), sulfur dioxide (SO2), benzo[a] pyrene (BaP), nickel (Ni), cadmium (Cd), and lead (Pb). Emissions for these pollutants were grouped into four emission source categories (Mobile, Area, High Point, and Other Point sources). The dispersion of the pollutants was predicted with the CALPUFF dispersion model using the year 2005 emission rate data and meteorological records. The resulting annual average concentrations were combined with population data to predict the contribution of each individual source to population exposure. The iFs for different pollutant-source category combinations varied between 51 per million (PM from Mobile sources) and 0.013 per million (sulfate PM from High Point sources). The intraurban iF variability for Mobile sources primary PM emission was from 4 per million to 100 per million with the emission-weighted iF of 44 per million. These results propose that exposure due to intraurban air pollution emissions could be decreased more effectively by specifically targeting sources with high exposure potency rather than all sources.
以具有成本效益的方式减轻空气污染对健康造成的不利影响，需要了解不同排放源对暴露的贡献情况。在城市地区，不同排放源的暴露潜力可能因排放高度、人口密度和其他因素而有显著差异。在本研究中，我们通过预测波兰华沙3066个排放源的摄入分数（iF），对城市内部的这种变异性进行了量化。iF描述了研究区域内人们吸入的污染物比例。我们考虑了以下七种污染物：颗粒物（PM）、氮氧化物（NOx）、二氧化硫（SO2）、苯并[a]芘（BaP）、镍（Ni）、镉（Cd）和铅（Pb）。这些污染物的排放被归为四类排放源（移动源、面源、高点源和其他点源）。使用2005年排放率数据和气象记录，通过CALPUFF扩散模型预测污染物的扩散情况。将由此得到的年平均浓度与人口数据相结合，以预测每个单独排放源对人群暴露的贡献。不同污染物 - 排放源类别组合的iF值在百万分之51（移动源的PM）至百万分之0.013（高点源的硫酸盐PM）之间变化。移动源一次PM排放的城市内部iF变异性为百万分之4至百万分之100，排放加权iF为百万分之44。这些结果表明，通过专门针对具有高暴露潜力的排放源而非所有排放源，可以更有效地降低城市内部空气污染排放导致的暴露。
