Hansson Sven Ove, Aven Terje
Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden.
Risk Anal. 2014 Jul;34(7):1173-83. doi: 10.1111/risa.12230. Epub 2014 Jun 11.
This article discusses to what extent risk analysis is scientific in view of a set of commonly used definitions and criteria. We consider scientific knowledge to be characterized by its subject matter, its success in developing the best available knowledge in its fields of study, and the epistemic norms and values that guide scientific investigations. We proceed to assess the field of risk analysis according to these criteria. For this purpose, we use a model for risk analysis in which science is used as a base for decision making on risks, which covers the five elements evidence, knowledge base, broad risk evaluation, managerial review and judgment, and the decision; and that relates these elements to the domains experts and decisionmakers, and to the domains fact-based or value-based. We conclude that risk analysis is a scientific field of study, when understood as consisting primarily of (i) knowledge about risk-related phenomena, processes, events, etc., and (ii) concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterize, communicate, and manage risk, in general and for specific applications (the instrumental part).
本文根据一组常用的定义和标准，探讨了风险分析在何种程度上具有科学性。我们认为科学知识具有以下特征：其主题内容、在其研究领域中开发最佳可用知识方面的成功，以及指导科学研究的认知规范和价值观。我们接着根据这些标准对风险分析领域进行评估。为此，我们使用一个风险分析模型，在该模型中科学被用作风险决策的基础，它涵盖五个要素：证据、知识库、广泛的风险评估、管理审查与判断以及决策；并且将这些要素与领域专家和决策者以及基于事实或基于价值的领域相关联。我们得出结论，当风险分析主要被理解为由（i）关于与风险相关的现象、过程、事件等的知识，以及（ii）用于理解、评估、描述、沟通和管理风险的一般和特定应用的概念、理论、框架、方法、原则、方法和模型（工具部分）组成时，它是一个科学研究领域。
