Magaziner J
Md Med J. 1989 Feb;38(2):115-20.
More than 29 million Americans are aged 65 and older, over 12 percent of the US population. This number is expected to increase to 35 million by the turn of the century and to 67 million by the year 2050. Growth is expected to be greatest among the oldest and most disabled members of this group, those aged 85 and older. Persons 65 and older are the largest consumers of medical care; their care needs will be even greater as we enter and move through the twenty first century. Most persons needing long-term care will reside in the community, not in nursing homes. In light of these projections, we must be concerned with community based prevention at all levels.
超过2900万美国人年龄在65岁及以上，占美国人口的12%以上。预计到本世纪之交，这一数字将增至3500万，到2050年将增至6700万。预计增长幅度最大的将是这个群体中年龄最大、残疾程度最高的成员，即85岁及以上的老人。65岁及以上的人是医疗保健的最大消费群体；随着我们进入并度过21世纪，他们的护理需求将更大。大多数需要长期护理的人将居住在社区，而不是养老院。鉴于这些预测，我们必须关注各级基于社区的预防工作。
