Oléron Evans Thomas P, Bishop Steven R
Department of Mathematics, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK; Centre for Advanced Spatial Analysis, UCL Bartlett Faculty of the Built Environment, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W1T 4TJ, UK.
Math Biosci. 2014 Aug;254:6-27. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2014.06.001. Epub 2014 Jun 12.
We present a simple mathematical model to replicate the key features of the sterile insect technique (SIT) for controlling pest species, with particular reference to the mosquito Aedes aegypti, the main vector of dengue fever. The model differs from the majority of those studied previously in that it is simultaneously spatially explicit and involves pulsed, rather than continuous, sterile insect releases. The spatially uniform equilibria of the model are identified and analysed. Simulations are performed to analyse the impact of varying the number of release sites, the interval between pulsed releases and the overall volume of sterile insect releases on the effectiveness of SIT programmes. Results show that, given a fixed volume of available sterile insects, increasing the number of release sites and the frequency of releases increases the effectiveness of SIT programmes. It is also observed that programmes may become completely ineffective if the interval between pulsed releases is greater that a certain threshold value and that, beyond a certain point, increasing the overall volume of sterile insects released does not improve the effectiveness of SIT. It is also noted that insect dispersal drives a rapid recolonisation of areas in which the species has been eradicated and we argue that understanding the density dependent mortality of released insects is necessary to develop efficient, cost-effective SIT programmes.
我们提出了一个简单的数学模型，以复制用于控制害虫物种的不育昆虫技术（SIT）的关键特征，特别提及埃及伊蚊，即登革热的主要传播媒介。该模型与之前研究的大多数模型不同，因为它在空间上是明确的，并且涉及脉冲式而非连续式的不育昆虫释放。我们识别并分析了该模型在空间上均匀的平衡状态。进行了模拟，以分析改变释放地点的数量、脉冲释放之间的间隔以及不育昆虫释放的总体积对SIT计划有效性的影响。结果表明，在可用不育昆虫的体积固定的情况下，增加释放地点的数量和释放频率会提高SIT计划的有效性。还观察到，如果脉冲释放之间的间隔大于某个阈值，计划可能会完全无效，并且在超过某一点之后，增加不育昆虫的总体释放量并不会提高SIT的有效性。还指出，昆虫扩散会促使已被根除物种的区域迅速重新定殖，并且我们认为，了解释放昆虫的密度依赖性死亡率对于制定高效、经济高效的SIT计划是必要的。
