Ecology. 2014 Apr;95(4):1087-95. doi: 10.1890/13-0778.1.
Powerful multiple regression-based approaches are commonly used to measure the strength of phenotypic selection, which is the statistical association between individual fitness and trait values. Age structure and overlapping generations complicate determinations of individual fitness, contributing to the popularity of alternative methods for measuring natural selection that do not depend upon such measures. The application of regression-based techniques for measuring selection in these situations requires a demographically appropriate, conceptually sound, and observable measure of individual fitness. It has been suggested that Fisher's reproductive value applied to an individual at its birth is such a definition. Here I offer support for this assertion by showing that multiple regression applied to this measure and vital rates (age-specific survival and fertility rates) yields the same selection gradients for vital rates as those inferred from Hamilton's classical results. I discuss how multiple regressions, applied to individual reproductive value at birth, can be used efficiently to estimate measures of phenotypic selection that are problematic for sensitivity analyses. These include nonlinear selection, components of the opportunity for selection, and multilevel selection.
基于强大的多元回归方法常用于衡量表型选择的强度，这是个体适应度与特征值之间的统计关联。年龄结构和重叠世代使个体适应度的确定变得复杂，这促使人们采用不依赖于这些测量方法的替代方法来衡量自然选择。在这些情况下，应用基于回归的技术来衡量选择需要一个人口统计学上适当、概念上合理和可观察的个体适应度衡量标准。有人认为，应用于个体出生时的费希尔生殖值就是这样一种定义。在这里，我通过展示应用于该度量和生命率（特定年龄的存活率和生育率）的多元回归产生与从汉密尔顿的经典结果推断出的相同的生命率选择梯度，为这一说法提供了支持。我讨论了如何有效地将个体出生时的生殖值的多元回归应用于估计对敏感性分析有问题的表型选择度量，包括非线性选择、选择机会的组成部分和多层次选择。
