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从科学文章中量化临床试验成功的概率。

Quantifying the probability of clinical trial success from scientific articles.

作者信息

Joshi Vineet, Milletti Francesca

机构信息

Roche Innovation Center New York, Pharma Research and Early Development Informatics, East 29th Street, New York, NY 10016, USA.

Roche Innovation Center New York, Pharma Research and Early Development Informatics, East 29th Street, New York, NY 10016, USA.

出版信息

Drug Discov Today. 2014 Oct;19(10):1514-7. doi: 10.1016/j.drudis.2014.06.013. Epub 2014 Jun 20.

DOI:10.1016/j.drudis.2014.06.013
PMID:24955839
Abstract

We sought to analyze how the number and quality of publications predict clinical trial success for a set of gene-disease associations. Limiting the scope of our analysis to genes in the protein kinase family and to oncology indications, we extracted gene-disease relationships from more than 12 million article titles and abstracts published between 1992 and 2012. We integrated these data with clinical trial information for FDA-approved kinase inhibitors and kinase inhibitors that failed owing to lack of efficacy. We found that, up until the year when a compound enters clinical trials, the cumulative number of publications about a gene-disease relationship corresponding to the compound's mechanism of action is, at the median, 30 for approved compounds but only four for failed compounds.

摘要

我们试图分析出版物的数量和质量如何预测一组基因与疾病关联的临床试验成功率。将分析范围限定在蛋白激酶家族的基因和肿瘤学适应症上,我们从1992年至2012年发表的超过1200万篇文章标题和摘要中提取了基因与疾病的关系。我们将这些数据与FDA批准的激酶抑制剂以及因缺乏疗效而失败的激酶抑制剂的临床试验信息相结合。我们发现,在一种化合物进入临床试验之前,与该化合物作用机制相对应的基因与疾病关系的出版物累积数量,经中位数计算,获批化合物为30篇,而失败化合物仅为4篇。

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