Limwattananon Supon
J Med Assoc Thai. 2014 May;97 Suppl 5:S59-64.
To meet updated international standards, this paper revises the previous Thai guidelines for conducting sensitivity analyses as part of the decision analysis model for health technology assessment. It recommends both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to handle uncertainty of the model parameters, which are best represented graphically. Two new methodological issues are introduced-a threshold analysis of medicines' unit prices for fulfilling the National Lists of Essential Medicines' requirements and the expected value of information for delaying decision-making in contexts where there are high levels of uncertainty. Further research is recommended where parameter uncertainty is significant and where the cost of conducting the research is not prohibitive.
为符合最新的国际标准，本文修订了泰国先前关于进行敏感性分析的指南，该分析作为卫生技术评估决策分析模型的一部分。它建议采用确定性和概率性敏感性分析来处理模型参数的不确定性，而这些不确定性最好用图形表示。本文引入了两个新的方法问题——对满足基本药物国家清单要求的药品单价进行阈值分析，以及在不确定性程度较高的情况下延迟决策的信息期望值。建议在参数不确定性显著且开展研究的成本并非过高的情况下开展进一步研究。
