Permsuwan Unchalee, Guntawongwan Kansinee, Buddhawongsa Piyaluk
J Med Assoc Thai. 2014 May;97 Suppl 5:S50-8.
The discount rates and time horizons used in a health technology assessment (HTA) can have a significant impact on the results, and thus the prioritization of technologies. Therefore, it is important that clear guidance be provided on the appropriate discount rates for cost and health effect and appropriate time horizons. In this paper we conduct a review of relevant case studies and guidelines and provide guidance for all researchers conducting economic evaluations of health technologies in the Thai context. A uniform discount rate of 3% is recommended for both costs and health effects in base case analyses. A sensitivity analysis should also be conducted, with a discount range of 0-6%. For technologies where the effects are likely to sustain for at least 30y ears, a rate of 4% for costs and 2% for health effects is recommended. The time horizon should be long enough to capture the full costs and effects of the programs.
卫生技术评估(HTA)中使用的贴现率和时间跨度会对结果产生重大影响,进而影响技术的优先排序。因此,提供关于成本和健康效果的适当贴现率以及适当时间跨度的明确指导非常重要。在本文中,我们对相关案例研究和指南进行了综述,并为在泰国背景下对卫生技术进行经济评估的所有研究人员提供指导。在基础案例分析中,建议对成本和健康效果均采用3%的统一贴现率。还应进行敏感性分析,贴现率范围为0 - 6%。对于效果可能持续至少30年的技术,建议成本贴现率为4%,健康效果贴现率为2%。时间跨度应足够长,以涵盖项目的全部成本和效果。