Hutter Hans-Peter, Kundi Michael, Moshammer Hanns, Shelton Janie, Krüger Bernd, Schicker Irene, Wallner Peter
a Institute of Environmental Health, Center for Public Health , Medical University of Vienna , Vienna , Austria.
Arch Environ Occup Health. 2015;70(1):4-9. doi: 10.1080/19338244.2013.787962.
Biofuels have become an alternative to fossil fuel, but consequences on human health from changes to emissions compositions are not well understood. By combining information on composition of vehicle exhaust, dispersion models, and relationship between exposure to air contaminants and health, the authors determined expected mortality outcomes in 2 scenarios: a blend of 10% biodiesel and 90% standard diesel (B10) and biodiesel only (B100), for a rural and an urban environment. Vehicle exhaust for both fuel compositions contained lower fine particle mass but higher NO2 levels. Ambient air concentrations in scenario B10 were almost unchanged. In scenario B100, PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) levels decreased by 4-8% and NO2 levels increased 7-11%. Reduction of PM2.5 is expected to reduce mortality rate by 5 × 10(-6) and 31 × 10(-6) per year, whereas NO2 increase adds 17 × 10(-6) and 30 × 10(-6) to mortality rate for B10 and B100, respectively. Since effects of PM2.5 and NO2 are not independent, a positive net effect is possible.
生物燃料已成为化石燃料的替代品，但排放成分变化对人类健康的影响尚未得到充分了解。通过整合车辆尾气成分、扩散模型以及空气污染物暴露与健康之间关系的信息，作者确定了两种情景下的预期死亡率结果：10%生物柴油与90%标准柴油的混合燃料（B10）以及仅使用生物柴油（B100），分别针对农村和城市环境。两种燃料成分的车辆尾气中细颗粒物质量较低，但二氧化氮水平较高。B10情景下的环境空气浓度几乎没有变化。在B100情景下，PM2.5（空气动力学直径<2.5μm的颗粒物）水平下降了4 - 8%，二氧化氮水平上升了7 - 11%。预计PM2.5的减少每年可使死亡率降低5×10⁻⁶和31×10⁻⁶，而二氧化氮的增加分别使B10和B100的死亡率增加17×10⁻⁶和30×10⁻⁶。由于PM2.5和二氧化氮的影响并非相互独立，因此可能产生正的净效应。
