Am J Epidemiol. 2014 Aug 1;180(3):235-44. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwu134. Epub 2014 Jun 24.
As pellagra reached epidemic proportions in the United States in the early 20th century, 2 teams of investigators assessed its incidence in cotton mill villages in South Carolina. The first, the Thompson-McFadden Commission, concluded that pellagra was likely infectious. The second, a Public Health Service investigation led by Joseph Goldberger, concluded that pellagra was caused by a dietary deficiency. In this paper, we recount the history of the 2 investigations and consider how the differences between the 2 studies' designs, measurements, analyses, and interpretations led to different conclusions. Because the novel dietary assessment strategy was a key feature of the Public Health Service's study design, we incorporated simulated measurement error in a reanalysis of the Public Health Service's data to assess whether this specific difference affected the divergent conclusions.
在 20 世纪初,糙皮病在美国达到流行程度时,两组调查人员评估了南卡罗来纳州棉纺村糙皮病的发病率。第一组,即汤普森-麦克法登委员会,得出糙皮病可能具有传染性的结论。第二组,由约瑟夫·戈德伯格领导的公共卫生服务调查得出糙皮病是由饮食缺乏引起的结论。在本文中,我们回顾了这两项调查的历史,并考虑了这两项研究的设计、测量、分析和解释之间的差异如何导致了不同的结论。由于公共卫生服务研究设计的一个关键特点是新颖的饮食评估策略,我们在对公共卫生服务数据的重新分析中纳入了模拟测量误差,以评估这种特定差异是否影响了不同的结论。