Condemi Vincenzo, Gestro Massimo, Dozio Elena, Tartaglino Bruno, Corsi Romanelli Massimiliano Marco, Solimene Umberto, Meco Roberto
Department of Biomedical Science for Health, Centre for Research in Medical Bioclimatology, Thermal and Complementary Medicine and Wellness Sciences, Università degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy.
Int J Biometeorol. 2015 Mar;59(3):249-63. doi: 10.1007/s00484-014-0861-1. Epub 2014 Jun 27.
The incidence of nephrolithiasis is rising worldwide, especially in women and with increasing age. Incidence and prevalence of kidney stones are affected by genetic, nutritional, and environmental factors. The aim of this study is to investigate the link between various meteorological factors (independent variables) and the daily number of visits to the Emergency Department (ED of the S. Croce and Carle Hospital of Cuneo for renal colic (RC) and urinary stones (UC) as the dependent variable over the years 2007-2010.The Poisson generalized regression models (PGAMs) have been used in different progressive ways. The results of PGAMs (stage 1) adjusted for seasonal and calendar factors confirmed a significant correlation (p < 0.03) with the thermal parameter. Evaluation of the dose-response effect [PGAMs combined with distributed lags nonlinear models (DLNMs)-stage 2], expressed in terms of relative risk (RR) and cumulative relative risk (RRC), indicated a relative significant effect up to 15 lag days of lag (RR > 1), with a first peak after 5 days (lag ranges 0-1, 0-3, and 0-5) and a second weak peak observed along the 5-15 lag range days. The estimated RR for females was significant, mainly in the second and fourth age group considered (19-44 and >65 years): RR for total ED visits 1.27, confidence interval (CI) 1.11-1.46 (lag 0-5 days); RR 1.42, CI 1.01-2.01 (lag 0-10 days); and RR 1.35, CI 1.09-1.68 (lag 0-15 days). The research also indicated a moderate involvement of the thermal factor in the onset of RC caused by UC, exclusively in the female sex. Further studies will be necessary to confirm these results.
全球范围内肾结石的发病率正在上升,尤其是在女性中,且随着年龄增长而增加。肾结石的发病率和患病率受遗传、营养和环境因素影响。本研究的目的是调查2007年至2010年期间各种气象因素(自变量)与库内奥圣十字和卡尔莱医院急诊科(ED)因肾绞痛(RC)和尿路结石(UC)就诊的每日次数(作为因变量)之间的联系。泊松广义回归模型(PGAMs)已以不同的递进方式使用。经季节性和日历因素调整的PGAMs结果(第1阶段)证实与热参数存在显著相关性(p < 0.03)。剂量反应效应评估[PGAMs与分布滞后非线性模型(DLNMs)相结合——第2阶段],以相对风险(RR)和累积相对风险(RRC)表示,表明在长达15个滞后日时存在相对显著效应(RR > 1),在5天后出现第一个峰值(滞后范围0 - 1、0 - 3和0 - 5),在5 - 15滞后日范围内观察到第二个较弱峰值。女性的估计RR显著,主要在所考虑的第二和第四年龄组(19 - 44岁和>65岁):急诊总就诊次数的RR为1.27,置信区间(CI)为1.11 - 1.46(滞后0 - 5天);RR为1.42,CI为1.01 - 2.01(滞后0 - 10天);RR为1.35,CI为1.09 - 1.68(滞后0 - 15天)。该研究还表明,热因素仅在女性中对由UC引起的RC发病有适度影响。需要进一步研究来证实这些结果。