Focused risk analysis: regression model based on 5,314 total hip and knee arthroplasty patients from a single institution.

We aimed to identify significant demographic, preoperative comorbidity and surgical predictors for major complications for use in the development of a risk prediction tool for a well-defined population as Total Joint Arthroplasty (TJA) patients. Data on 5314 consecutive patients who underwent primary total hip or knee arthroplasty from October 1, 2008 through September 30, 2011 at a single institution were used in a multivariate regression analysis. The overall incidence of a primary endpoint (reoperation during same admission, extended length of stay, and 30-day readmission) was 3.8%. Significant predictors include certain preexisting genitourinary, circulatory and respiratory conditions; ASA>2; advanced age and prolonged operating time. Mental health conditions demonstrate a strong predictive effect for subsequent serious complication(s) in TJA patients and should be included in a risk-adjustment tool.