Schurz Gerhard
Stud Hist Philos Sci. 2014 Mar;45:87-96. doi: 10.1016/j.shpsa.2013.10.008.
According to the comparative Bayesian concept of confirmation, rationalized versions of creationism come out as empirically confirmed. From a scientific viewpoint, however, they are pseudo-explanations because with their help all kinds of experiences are explainable in an ex-post fashion, by way of ad-hoc fitting of an empirically empty theoretical framework to the given evidence. An alternative concept of confirmation that attempts to capture this intuition is the use novelty (UN) criterion of confirmation. Serious objections have been raised against this criterion. In this paper I suggest solutions to these objections. Based on them, I develop an account of genuine confirmation that unifies the UN-criterion with a refined probabilistic confirmation concept that is explicated in terms of the confirmation of evidence-transcending content parts of the hypothesis.
根据比较性贝叶斯确证概念，神创论的合理化版本被证明是得到经验确证的。然而，从科学的角度来看，它们是伪解释，因为借助它们，各种经验都可以事后通过将一个经验上空洞的理论框架临时拟合到给定证据的方式来加以解释。一种试图捕捉这种直觉的确证概念是确证的使用新颖性（UN）标准。针对这一标准已经提出了严重的反对意见。在本文中，我提出了针对这些反对意见的解决方案。基于这些方案，我发展出一种真正确证的说明，它将UN标准与一种经过改进的概率确证概念统一起来，这种概率确证概念是根据对假设中超越证据内容部分的确证来阐述的。
