Ecol Appl. 2014 Jun;24(4):832-43. doi: 10.1890/13-0479.1.
Shellfish carrying capacity is determined by the interaction of a cultured species with its ecosystem, which is strongly influenced by hydrodynamics. Water circulation controls the exchange of matter between farms and the adjacent areas, which in turn establishes the nutrient supply that supports phytoplankton populations. The complexity of water circulation makes necessary the use of hydrodynamic models with detailed spatial resolution in carrying capacity estimations. This detailed spatial resolution also allows for the study of processes that depend on specific spatial arrangements, e.g., the most suitable location to place farms, which is crucial for marine spatial planning, and consequently for decision support systems. In the present study, a fully spatial physical-biogeochemical model has been combined with scenario building and optimization techniques as a proof of concept of the use of ecosystem modeling as an objective tool to inform marine spatial planning. The object of this exercise was to generate objective knowledge based on an ecosystem approach to establish new mussel aquaculture areas in a Norwegian fjord. Scenario building was used to determine the best location of a pump that can be used to bring nutrient-rich deep waters to the euphotic layer, increasing primary production, and consequently, carrying capacity for mussel cultivation. In addition, an optimization tool, parameter estimation (PEST), was applied to the optimal location and mussel standing stock biomass that maximize production, according to a preestablished carrying capacity criterion. Optimization tools allow us to make rational and transparent decisions to solve a well-defined question, decisions that are essential for policy makers. The outcomes of combining ecosystem models with scenario building and optimization facilitate planning based on an ecosystem approach, highlighting the capabilities of ecosystem modeling as a tool for marine spatial planning.
贝类养殖容量取决于养殖物种与其生态系统的相互作用，而生态系统又受到水动力的强烈影响。水的循环控制着养殖场与周边区域之间物质的交换，进而为支持浮游植物种群的养分供应提供了基础。水的循环十分复杂，因此在进行养殖容量估算时必须使用具有详细空间分辨率的水动力模型。这种详细的空间分辨率还可以研究依赖特定空间排列的过程，例如，确定养殖场最合适的位置，这对于海洋空间规划至关重要，从而也为决策支持系统提供了依据。在本研究中，一个完全空间物理生物地球化学模型与情景构建和优化技术相结合，作为使用生态系统模型作为客观工具来支持海洋空间规划的概念验证。本研究的目的是生成基于生态系统方法的客观知识，为在挪威峡湾建立新的贻贝养殖区提供依据。情景构建用于确定可以用来将富含营养的深层水带到透光层的泵的最佳位置，从而增加初级生产力，进而增加贻贝养殖的养殖容量。此外，还应用了优化工具，即参数估计（PEST），根据预先设定的养殖容量标准，对最佳位置和贻贝现存量生物量进行优化，以实现产量最大化。优化工具允许我们根据明确的问题做出合理和透明的决策，这些决策对于决策者来说至关重要。将生态系统模型与情景构建和优化相结合的结果，促进了基于生态系统方法的规划，突出了生态系统建模作为海洋空间规划工具的能力。
