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一种预测性早熟女孩自然生长后成年身高的数学模型。

A mathematical model for predicting the adult height of girls with advanced puberty after spontaneous growth.

作者信息

Lemaire Pierre, Pierre Delphine, Bertrand Jean-Baptiste, Brauner Raja

机构信息

Université Paris Descartes and Fondation Ophtalmologique Adolphe de Rothschild, 75940 Paris, France.

出版信息

BMC Pediatr. 2014 Jul 3;14:172. doi: 10.1186/1471-2431-14-172.

DOI:10.1186/1471-2431-14-172
PMID:24994575
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4094405/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

Advanced puberty in girls is defined as the onset of puberty between the ages of 8 yr and 10 yr. The objective was to predict adult height (AH) at initial evaluation and to characterize patients with an actual AH below -2 SD (152 cm) and/or lower than their target height (TH) by > one SD (5.6 cm).

METHODS

Data analysis using multiple linear regression models was performed in 50 girls with advanced puberty who reached their AH after spontaneous puberty.

RESULTS

The actual AH (159.0 ± 6.1 cm) was similar to the TH (161.2 ± 4.6 cm) and to the AH predicted at the initial evaluation (160.8 ± 6.0 cm), and the actual AH correlated positively with both (R = 0.76, P = 0.0003; R = 0.71, P = 0.008, respectively).The AH was below 152 cm in 7 girls, of whom 3 were characterized by paternal transmission of the advanced puberty. The AH was lower than the TH by >5.6 cm in 8 girls.The AH (cm) could be calculated at the initial evaluation: 1.8822 age + 3.3510 height (SD) - 0.7465 bone age - 1.7993 pubic hair stage + 2.8409 TH (SD) + 150.32.The formula is available online at http://www.kamick.org/lemaire/med/girls-advpub.html.The calculated AH (159.0 ± 5.7 cm) and the actual AH were highly correlated (R = 0.93). The actual AH was lower than the calculated AH by > 0.5 SD in only one case (4.35 cm).

CONCLUSION

We established a formula that can be used at an initial evaluation to predict the AH, and then to assess the risk of reduced AH as a result of advanced puberty. According to this formula, the actual AH was lower than the calculated AH by more than 2.8 cm (0.5 SD) in only one girl. The AHs of the untreated girls with advanced puberty did not differ from those predicted at the initial evaluation by the Bayley and Pinneau table or from the THs. However, this study provides a useful and ready-to-use formula that can be an additional assessment of girls with advanced puberty.

摘要

背景

女童性早熟被定义为8岁至10岁之间青春期开始。目的是在初始评估时预测成人身高(AH),并对实际AH低于-2标准差(152厘米)和/或比其靶身高(TH)低超过1标准差(5.6厘米)的患者进行特征描述。

方法

对50名性早熟女童进行数据分析,这些女童在自然青春期后达到成人身高,采用多元线性回归模型。

结果

实际AH(159.0±6.1厘米)与TH(161.2±4.6厘米)以及初始评估时预测的AH(160.8±6.0厘米)相似,实际AH与二者均呈正相关(分别为R = 0.76,P = 0.0003;R = 0.71,P = 0.008)。7名女童的AH低于152厘米,其中3名的特征是父亲遗传导致性早熟。8名女童的AH比TH低超过5.6厘米。初始评估时可计算AH(厘米):1.8822×年龄 + 3.3510×身高(标准差) - 0.7465×骨龄 - 1.7993×阴毛分期 + 2.8409×TH(标准差)+ 150.32。该公式可在以下网址在线获取:http://www.kamick.org/lemaire/med/girls-advpub.html。计算出的AH(159.0±5.7厘米)与实际AH高度相关(R = 0.93)。仅1例实际AH比计算出的AH低超过0.5标准差(4.35厘米)。

结论

我们建立了一个可在初始评估时用于预测AH,进而评估因性早熟导致AH降低风险的公式。根据该公式,仅1名女童的实际AH比计算出的AH低超过2.8厘米(0.5标准差)。未治疗的性早熟女童的AH与贝利和皮诺表在初始评估时预测的结果以及TH并无差异。然而,本研究提供了一个有用且现成可用的公式,可作为对性早熟女童的额外评估。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/aeb7/4094405/c11e5736facd/1471-2431-14-172-2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/aeb7/4094405/ed33c38777cb/1471-2431-14-172-1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/aeb7/4094405/c11e5736facd/1471-2431-14-172-2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/aeb7/4094405/ed33c38777cb/1471-2431-14-172-1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/aeb7/4094405/c11e5736facd/1471-2431-14-172-2.jpg

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