Stoklosa Jakub, Dann Peter, Huggins Richard
School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of New South Wales, New South Wales 2052, Australia.
Research Department, Phillip Island Nature Parks, P.O. Box 97, Cowes, Phillip Island, Victoria 3922, Australia.
Math Biosci. 2014 Sep;255:43-51. doi: 10.1016/j.mbs.2014.06.014. Epub 2014 Jul 3.
To accommodate seasonal effects that change from year to year into models for the size of an open population we consider a time-varying coefficient model. We fit this model to a capture-recapture data set collected on the little penguin Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia over a 25 year period using Jolly-Seber type estimators and nonparametric P-spline techniques. The time-varying coefficient model identified strong changes in the seasonal pattern across the years which we further examined using functional data analysis techniques. To evaluate the methodology we also conducted several simulation studies that incorporate seasonal variation.
