Cicchino Jessica B, McCartt Anne T
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, 1005 North Glebe Road, Arlington, VA 22201, United States.
Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, 1005 North Glebe Road, Arlington, VA 22201, United States.
Accid Anal Prev. 2014 Nov;72:44-54. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.06.011. Epub 2014 Jul 5.
Previous research has shown that fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver aged 70 and older declined significantly more per year in the United States than rates for middle-aged drivers aged 35-54 during 1997-2008, and per vehicle mile traveled from 1995-1996 to 2001-2002. Analyses of police-reported crash data during 1997-2005 indicated that the greater declines for older drivers were due to decreases in crash involvement and in the risk of dying in the crashes that occurred. The current study examined if trends in crash rates, crash involvements, and survivability persisted into more recent years.
Trends for drivers 70 and older were compared with trends for drivers aged 35-54 for U.S. national fatal passenger vehicle crash involvements per 100,000 licensed drivers during 1997-2012 and for U.S. national fatal passenger vehicle crash involvements per vehicle miles traveled in 1995-1996, 2001-2002, and 2008. Using police-reported crash data during 1997-2008 from 20 U.S. states, trends in involvement rates in non-fatal crashes of various severities per 100,000 licensed drivers and changes in the odds of death and the odds of death or serious injury in a crash were compared between older and middle-aged drivers.
During 2007-2012, declines in national fatal crash involvement rates per licensed driver were similar for drivers 70 and older and middle-aged drivers (18 percent each). However, when considering the entire study period, fatal crash involvement rates continued to reflect a substantially larger decline for drivers 70 and older than for middle-aged drivers (42 vs. 30 percent per licensed driver during 1997-2012, 39 vs. 26 percent per vehicle mile traveled from 1995-2006 to 2008). When analyses of police-reported crash data were extended through 2008, non-fatal injury crash involvement rates per licensed driver declined more for older than for middle-aged drivers (39 vs. 30 percent), and unlike in prior research, average annual declines were significantly larger for drivers 80 and older. Property damage-only crash involvement rates similarly declined significantly more for older than for middle-aged drivers (15 vs. 3 percent). Drivers 70 and older in 1997 were 3.5 times more likely than middle-aged drivers to die in a crash, and this ratio declined to 3.2 by 2008.
Although declines in fatal crash involvement rates in recent years have not differed between older and middle-aged drivers, this did not undo earlier gains for older drivers. The recent slowing in the relative magnitude of the decline for older drivers may be related to the differential effect of the U.S. recession on fatal crash involvements of drivers in these age groups. The decreased likelihood of being involved in a crash of any severity and increased survivability when a crash occurred held when examining data through 2008, and for drivers 80 and older, significant declines in crash involvement relative to middle-aged drivers extended to non-fatal injury crashes.
先前的研究表明，1997 - 2008年期间，美国70岁及以上持证驾驶员的致命撞车事故参与率每年下降幅度明显大于35 - 54岁中年驾驶员，且在1995 - 1996年至2001 - 2002年期间每车辆行驶里程的下降幅度也是如此。对1997 - 2005年警方报告的撞车数据进行分析表明，老年驾驶员下降幅度更大是由于撞车事故参与率下降以及发生撞车事故时死亡风险降低。本研究调查了撞车率、撞车事故参与情况和生存能力的趋势是否持续到更近的年份。
比较了1997 - 2012年期间美国每10万名持证驾驶员中70岁及以上驾驶员与35 - 54岁驾驶员的全国致命乘用车撞车事故参与趋势，以及1995 - 1996年、2001 - 2002年和2008年每车辆行驶里程的美国全国致命乘用车撞车事故参与情况。利用来自美国20个州的1997 - 2008年警方报告的撞车数据，比较了老年驾驶员和中年驾驶员每10万名持证驾驶员在各种严重程度的非致命撞车事故中的参与率趋势，以及撞车事故中死亡几率和死亡或重伤几率的变化。
在2007 - 2012年期间，70岁及以上驾驶员和中年驾驶员每持证驾驶员的全国致命撞车事故参与率下降幅度相似（均为18%）。然而，考虑整个研究期间，70岁及以上驾驶员的致命撞车事故参与率下降幅度仍远大于中年驾驶员（1997 - 2012年期间每持证驾驶员分别为42%和30%，1995 - 2006年至2008年期间每车辆行驶里程分别为39%和26%）。当将警方报告的撞车数据分析延长至2008年时，每持证驾驶员的非致命伤害撞车事故参与率老年驾驶员下降幅度大于中年驾驶员（39%对30%），与先前研究不同的是，80岁及以上驾驶员的年均下降幅度明显更大。仅造成财产损失的撞车事故参与率老年驾驶员同样比中年驾驶员下降幅度显著更大（15%对3%）。1997年70岁及以上驾驶员在撞车事故中死亡的可能性是中年驾驶员的3.5倍，到2008年这一比例降至3.2倍。
尽管近年来老年驾驶员和中年驾驶员的致命撞车事故参与率下降幅度没有差异，但这并没有抵消老年驾驶员早期取得的进展。近期老年驾驶员下降幅度相对减缓可能与美国经济衰退对这些年龄组驾驶员致命撞车事故参与情况的不同影响有关。在研究数据至2008年时，发生任何严重程度撞车事故的可能性降低以及撞车事故发生时生存能力提高的情况依然存在，对于80岁及以上驾驶员，相对于中年驾驶员，撞车事故参与率的显著下降延伸至非致命伤害撞车事故。
